Mortgage Market In Review

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates.  Rates were volatile Tuesday in response to a higher than expected core inflation reading.   Producer prices rose 0.4% and the core value, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3%. 

Mortgage Market In Review

Economists expected PPI to rise 0.4% and the core value to rise 0.2%. Tame consumer inflation readings Wednesday tempered some of the earlier losses.  CPI rose 0.4% as expected.  However, the core rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.2% increase.

Mortgage Market In Review

The Fed raised rates 25 basis points as expected.  This was already factored into trading and didn’t move things much.  Retails sales shocked on the upside with a 0.8% increase versus an expected 0.3% increase.  Weekly jobless claims were 225K. Analysts looked for a mark of 235K. 

Mortgage Market In Review

We ended the week worse by approximately 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.

 

Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
NAHB Housing Index Monday, Dec. 18,
10:00 am, et
70 Moderately Important.  A measure of single family housing.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Housing Starts Tuesday, Dec. 19,
8:30 am, et
1.3M Important.  A measure of housing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Q3 GDP Revised Thursday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
Up 3.3% Very important.  The aggregate measure of US economic production.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

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Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Philadelphia Fed Survey Thursday, Dec. 21,
10:00 am, et
23 Moderately important.  A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

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Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Weekly Jobless Claims Thursday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
225K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays Friday, Dec. 22,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.2%
Important.  A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

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Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
PCE Core Inflation Friday, Dec. 22,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.1% Important.  A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption.  Weaker figure may help rates improve.

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Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
Durable Goods Orders Friday, Dec. 22,
 8:30 am, et
Up 0.4% Important.  An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

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Mortgage Market In Review

Economic Indicator Release Date Concensus Estimate Analysis
New Home Sales Friday, Dec. 22,
10:00 am, et
685K Important.  An indication of economic strength and credit demand.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.

LOOKING AHEAD

Mortgage Market In Review

Income and Overlays

The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand.  The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries.  The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services.  Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.

Mortgage Market In Review

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Mortgage Market In Review

By Corridor Mortgage Group

Mortgage Market In Review

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