Dr Dénes Csala
Lecturer, Lancaster University
Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Data VIsualisation Lead, Economics Observatory
Economics is best taught visually
4th June 2021
A visual introduction to Bayes' theorem and machine learning
Bayes' Theorem
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A)P(B∣A)
P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}
P(🌧∣☁)=P(☁)P(🌧)P(☁∣🌧)
P(🌧|☁)=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}
P(A∣B)=0.50.1⋅0.9=0.18
P(A|B)=\frac{0.1\cdot 0.9}{0.5}=0.18
Bayes' Theorem
P(☁)P(🌧)P(☁∣🌧)=P(🌧)P(☁∣🌧)+P(¬🌧)P(☁∣¬🌧)P(🌧)P(☁∣🌧)
\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)+P(\neg🌧)P(☁|\neg🌧)}
P(🌧)
P(🌧)
P(☁∣🌧)
P(☁|🌧)
P(¬🌧)=P(☀)
P(\neg🌧)=P(☀)
P(☁∣¬🌧)=P(☁∣☀)
P(☁|\neg🌧)=P(☁|☀)
☀ ☁
🌧❄
=P(🌧∣☁)
= P(🌧|☁)
+
+
P(☁)
P(☁)
K-means
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A)P(B∣A)
P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}
What is the probability that a point k belongs to cluster C, given that C is in the location (x,y) ?
Career path
Energy return on energy investment
Murphy et al., 2011, Energy Policy
Sgouridis, Csala, Bardi, 2016, Environmental Research Letters
Kaya, Csala, Sgouridis, 2016, Climatic Change
Energy transitions modelling
Sgouridis, Dale, Csala, Chiesa, Bardi, 2019, Nature Energy
Lancaster University, Department of Engineering
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ENGR203 – Power Systems
Autumn 2018/19 (19 responses / 129 students, 4.37 / 5.00)
Autumn 2019/20 (20 responses / 143 students, 4.15 / 5.00)
Autumn 2020/21 (32 responses / 126 students, 4.34 / 5.00)
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ENGR371 – Renewable Energy
Spring 2020/21 (21 responses / 78 students, 3.71 / 5.00) -
ENGR429 – Advanced Power Systems Analysis
Autumn 2020/21 (2 responses / 4 students, 4.50 / 5.00)
Babes-Bolyai University
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
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Business Intelligence / Decision Support Systems
Autumn 2018/19 (10 responses / 43 students, 4.30 / 5.00)
Autumn 2019/20 (11 responses / 68 students, 5.00 / 5.00)
Autumn 2020/21 (14 responses / 42 students, 4.93 / 5.00)
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Integrated Business Applications
Spring 2019/20 (26 responses / 51 students, 4.75 / 5.00)
Spring 2020/21 (7 responses / 35 students, 4.85 / 5.00)
All lectures have been recorded and available online
10+ days of content
Knowledge
Information
Data
Arecibo Interstellar Message - wikimedia.com
Purpose of education?
Wald Ábrahám, 1944
Dr Dénes Csala
Lecturer, Lancaster University
Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Data VIsualisation Lead, Economics Observatory
4th June 2021
Thank you!
Big Data =
Big Responsibility
Datasaurus, Autodesk, 2017
Dr Dénes Csala Lecturer, Lancaster University Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania Data VIsualisation Lead, Economics Observatory Economics is best taught visually 4th June 2021