Vera C. Rubin Observatory:

Ushering a New Era of TDA

Federica Bianco

(she/her)

University of Delaware

Department of Physics and Astronomy

Biden School of Public Policy and Administration

Data  Science Institute

Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time

Deputy Project Scientist, Rubin Construction

This is a living land acknowledgement developed in consultation with tribal leadership of Poutaxet, what is now known as the “Delaware Bay,” including: the Lenape Indian Tribe of Delaware, the Nanticoke Indian Tribe, and the Nanticoke Lenni-Lenape Tribal Nation in 2021. We thank these leaders for their generosity.

The University of Delaware occupies lands vital to the web of life for Lenni Lenape and Nanticoke, who share their ancestry, history, and future in this region. UD has financially benefited from this regional occupation as well as from Indigenous territories that were expropriated through the United States land grant system. European colonizers and later the United States forced Nanticoke and Lenni Lenape westward and northward, where they formed nations in present-day Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Ontario, Canada. Others never left their homelands or returned from exile when they could. We express our appreciation for ongoing Indigenous stewardship of the ecologies and traditions of this region. While the harms to Indigenous people and their homelands are beyond repair, we commit to building right relationships going forward by collaborating with tribal leadership on actionable institutional steps.

slides available at

https://slides.com/federicabianco/nrhs24

This is a living land acknowledgement developed in consultation with tribal leadership of Poutaxet, what is now known as the “Delaware Bay,” including: the Lenape Indian Tribe of Delaware, the Nanticoke Indian Tribe, and the Nanticoke Lenni-Lenape Tribal Nation in 2021. We thank these leaders for their generosity.

The University of Delaware occupies lands vital to the web of life for Lenni Lenape and Nanticoke, who share their ancestry, history, and future in this region. UD has financially benefited from this regional occupation as well as from Indigenous territories that were expropriated through the United States land grant system. European colonizers and later the United States forced Nanticoke and Lenni Lenape westward and northward, where they formed nations in present-day Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Ontario, Canada. Others never left their homelands or returned from exile when they could. We express our appreciation for ongoing Indigenous stewardship of the ecologies and traditions of this region. While the harms to Indigenous people and their homelands are beyond repair, we commit to building right relationships going forward by collaborating with tribal leadership on actionable institutional steps.

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time @

Vera C. Rubin Observatory

Site: Cerro Pachon, Chile

Funding: US NSF + DOE

Rubin Transients by the numbers

(2026)

17B stars Ivezic+19

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

SKA

(2025)

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

SKA

(2025)

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

SKA

(2025)

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

SKA

(2025)

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

~10k SuperLuminous Supernovae Villar+ 2018

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

SKA

(2025)

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

~10k SuperLuminous Supernovae Villar+ 2018

~ 50k Tidal Disruption Events Brickman+ 2020

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

~10k SuperLuminous Supernovae Villar+ 2018

~ 50k Tidal Disruption Events Brickman+ 2020

> 10 Interstellar Objects (👽?)

SKA

(2025)

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

~10k SuperLuminous Supernovae Villar+ 2018

~ 50k Tidal Disruption Events Brickman+ 2020

> 10 Interstellar Objects (👽?)

?? things we dont know

SKA

(2025)

(2026)

Rubin Transients by the numbers

LSST Science Drivers

Probing Dark Energy and Dark Matter

image credit ESO-Gaia

LSST Science Drivers

Mapping the Milky Way and Local Volume

via resolved stellar population

An unprecedented inventory of the Solar System from threatening NEO to the distant Oort Cloud

LSST Science Drivers

LSST Science Drivers

Exploring the Transients and Variable Universe

10M alerts every night shared with the world

60 seconds after observation

From Francisco Förster+ 2020

sensitivity

10 (3.2 Gpx)

8

9 

7

6

2M 3,200 Gigapixel images in 10 years -about 60 PB of data

AT2022cmc

Ho+2023

A Search for Extragalactic Fast Blue Optical Transients in ZTF and the Rate of
AT2018cow-like Transients

Ho+ 2023

Minutes-duration Optical Flares with Supernova
Luminosities

Andreoni+22

A very luminous jet from the disruption of a star by a massive black hole

What time scales can LSST probe?

' requirement: ls.st/srd

*simulation pstn-054.lsst.io

Rubin Observatory

Site: Cerro Pachon, Chile

Funding: US NSF + DOE

Status: final phases of construction - completion expected 2025

September 2016

Fabruary 2020

May 2022

November 2022

March 2024

ls.st/dates

First data release ~2.5-3y from now

ls.st/dates

May 2022 - Telescope Mount Assembly

18

The DOE LSST Camera - 3.2 Gigapixel

At this level of precision,everything is variable, everything is blended, everything is moving.

SDSS

LSST-like HSC composite

' requirement: ls.st/srd

*simulation pstn-054.lsst.io

SDSS 2x4 arcmin sq griz

MYSUC (Gawiser 2014) 1 mag shallower than LSST coadds

At this level of precision,everything is variable, everything is blended, everything is moving.

' requirement: ls.st/srd

*simulation pstn-054.lsst.io

LSST time domain data products

Alerts                                                               Images

Meta Data &

Catalog Visits  

80

Pitt-Google

Broker

BABAMUL

world public!

in 60 seconds:

Difference Image Analysis

in 60 seconds:

Difference Image Analysis + Bogus rejection

Tatiana Acero-Cuellar

Working on Alert Production within the DIA Commissioningn Unit

in 60 seconds:

Difference Image Analysis + Bogus rejection

Rubin Observatory LSST 

world public!

data right holders

Get In on the Rubin Science Platform!!

Its Free!!

https://dp0-1.lsst.io/dp0-delegate-resources

Rubin Observatory LSST 

Rubin Transients by the number

17B stars Ivezic+19

~10 million QSO Mary Loli+21

∼200 quadruply-lensed quasars Minghao+19

~50 kilonovae Setzer+19, Andreoni+19   (+ ToO)

~10k SuperLuminous Supernovae Villar+ 2018

~ 50k Tidal Disruption Events Brickman+ 2020

> 10 Interstellar Objects ( 👽?)

~1000 SN / night

Rubin will see ~1000 SN every night!

Credit: Alex Gagliano University of Illinois, IAIFI fellow 2023

Discovery Engine

10M alerts/night

Community Brokers

target observation managers

the astronomy discovery chain

Pitt-Google

Broker

BABAMUL

Photometric Classification of transients

highest participation of any astronomical Kaggle challenges

Deep Drilling Fields

Kaggle PLAsTiCC challenge

AVOCADO classifier

https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.04690

Deep Drilling Fields

Kaggle PLAsTiCC challenge

AVOCADO classifier

https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.04690

Wide Fast Deep

Willow Fox Fortino

UDel grad student

When they go high, we go low

Classification power vs spectral resolution for SNe subtypes

Neural Network

classifier architectures:

- transformers
- CNNs

Operation Simulator (OpSim)

simulates the catalog of LSST observations + observation properties

Metric Analysi Framwork (MAF)

Python API to interact with OpSims specifying science performance on a science case with a metric

Lynne Jones

Peter Yoachim

~100s simulations

~1000s MAFs

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

Wide Fast Deep

5 Deep Drilling Fields

North Ecliptic spur

South Celestial Pole

The Galactic Plane is observed differently

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

Wide Fast Deep

5 Deep Drilling Fields

North Ecliptic spur

South Celestial Pole

The Galactic Plane is observed differently

distributions of time gaps in 76 OpSims

Bianco et al. 2021 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4365/ac3e72

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin LSST survey design

https://www.lsst.org/content/charge-survey-cadence-optimization-committee-scoc

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

Survey Cadence Optimization Committee

Rubin LSST survey design

20+ peer review papers accepted several more under review and in preparation https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/0067-0049/page/rubin_cadence

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

2017

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

2019

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

2023

Rubin LSST survey design

Rubin has involved the community to an unprecedented level in survey design this is a uniquely "democratic" process!

2024

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

The original survey plan didn't lead to good TDA outcomes:

2 intranight obs in same filer +

2 intranight obs in another filter ~5 day later

The original survey plan didn't lead to good TDA outcomes:

2 intranight obs in same filer +

2 intranight obs in another filter ~5 day later

Proposed 3 intranight obs

2 within 1 hour in different filters

1 at 4-8 hours separation w repeat filter

Back to back images are now taken in different filters

few % of the observations will be taken in this mode

+ rolling cadence

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

Proposed 3 intranight obs

2 within 1 hour in different filters

1 at 4-8 hours separation w repeat filter

Ofek+ 2024

KN evolution in color vs magnitude change is distinct from the background

The original survey plan didn't lead to good TDA outcomes:

2 intranight obs in same filer +

2 intranight obs in another filter ~5 day later

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

Proposed 3 intranight obs

2 within 1 hour in different filters

1 at 4-8 hours separation w repeat filter

The original survey plan didn't lead to good TDA outcomes:

2 intranight obs in same filer +

2 intranight obs in another filter ~5 day later

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

Xiaolong Li

LSSTC Catalyst Fellow, J. Hopkins

Unknown Unknowns in LSST

Li et al. 2022 ApJS 258 2

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

Li et al 2021

PSTN-055  Official Rubin Cadence Recommendation 1/2023 : Rolling  is recommended on the WFD, with the sky split into two 1/2-sky regions defined by declination limits and with a 0.9 rolling weight.

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

newer simulations ->

2023 simulations: 62% improvement

newer simulations ->

4 – 24 hour gaps between epochs will enable kilonova parameter estimation

    2017

2024

Andreoni+ 2022a

Rapidly Evolving Transients in LSST

 Presto-Color, Bianco+ 2019; Give me a few hours, Bellm+ 2019

Large FoV - High Resolution - High Sensitivity

Rubin Field of View: 10deg square

LIGO/VIRGO GW area of localization ~100deg square

 Ursa Minor: 255.86 square degrees

S190425z 18% of the sky localization

This is a workshop: the goal of the workshop is to produce a report to be delivered to the SCOC containing recommendations for how to implement ToO responses with Rubin. There are no talks.Time is dedicated to collaboratively working toward the workshop report.  

Rubin ToO program

SOC: I. Andreoni (KN), F. Bianco, A. Franckowiak (ν), T. Lister (Solar System),

R. Margutti (KN, GRB), G. Smith (Lensed KN)

Rubin ToO program

Pies in the LSST sky

2018 Cadence White Paper

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aae7cf

Continuous readout astronomical images for anomaly detection in ZTF

new transformer models!

Shar Daniels, NSF GRFP Fellow 2024

Xiaolong Li et al. 2022

LSSTC Catalyst Fellow, J. Hopkins

AILE: the first AI-based platform for the detection and study of Light Echoes

NSF Award #2108841

P.I. Bianco

Light Ecoes are rare strophsyical pheonomena and a near-pessimal problem for AI, but with as much data as LSST AI is a necessity

• imbalance classes
• diverse morphology
• low SNR

• small training data
• inaccurate labels

Research Inclusion: sonification of LSST lightcurves

Rubin Rhapsodies

https://lsst-tvssc.github.io/RubinRhapsodies/

atmosphere-aided studies with LSST

Riley Clarke, UDelware

dM                 Flare energy

dDCR               color                Flare temperature

NSF Award #2308016

P.I. Bianco

Riley Clarke et al. 2024 submitted

AstroPhysical Journl Supplements

LSST ΔDCR detectability

Riley Clarke, UDelware

Stars that flare ΔDCR