Scalable Bayesian inference with automatically differentiable simulators for the cosmological analysis of the DESI survey
2026/09/25
DESI: \(60\)M by 2029
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Observing shift 2025-11-25
How did this happen?
"A female kitchen chef amazed while discovering a cake made out of the universe with its large scale structures of galaxies."
Copernicus, XVI CE
Einstein, XX CE
We are no privileged observers
$$G_{\mu\nu}= \kappa T_{\mu\nu}$$
Consequence:
Evolution of the Universe is determined by its content
Consequence:
Universe looks the same everywhere and in every direction
+
light
ordinary matter
dark matter
dark energy
❌
?
Standard analysis: compress the map
Gaussian
N-body (simulated gravity)
Same power spectrum
Information content
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega := \{ \Omega_m, \Omega_\Lambda, H_0, \sigma_8, f_\mathrm{NL},...\}\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\delta_g\)
simulate & compare
update
observed
simulated
The Challenges:
The Promise:
Evolves linear matter field (initial conditions) \(\delta_L\) to non-linear matter field \(\delta_m\)
paint*
fft*
ifft*
read*
\(\delta(\boldsymbol x)\)
\(\delta(\boldsymbol k)\)
\((\boldsymbol q, \boldsymbol p)\)
apply forces
to move particles
\(\begin{cases}\dot {\boldsymbol q} \propto \boldsymbol p\\ \dot{\boldsymbol p} = \boldsymbol f \end{cases}\)
solve Vlasov-Poisson
to compute forces
\(\begin{cases}\nabla^2 \phi \propto \delta\\ \boldsymbol f = -\nabla \phi \end{cases} \implies \boldsymbol f \propto \frac{i\boldsymbol k}{k^2} \delta\)
*: differentiable, e.g. with , and in \(\mathcal O(n \log n)\)
Halo hosts form where \(\delta_m > \delta_c \implies{\color{brown} \delta_g} \propto {\color{blue} \delta_m}\)
2LPT solved using the fixed point method
$$z = \chi^{-1}(|\boldsymbol q + \Psi(\boldsymbol q, z)|)$$
(no interpolation needed)
Particles moved according to their peculiar velocities
$$\Delta\boldsymbol q= H^{-1}\dot {\boldsymbol q_\parallel}$$
Galaxy peculiar velocities add up to cosmological redshift
Far away galaxies are seen in younger, less evolved structures
\(k_\mathrm{evolve}, k_\mathrm{paint}\)
(gravity, EFT)
\(k_\mathrm{final}\)
\(k_\mathrm{init}\)
\(P_\mathrm{err} = 0\)
\(\iff\)
equal fields
Metropolis-Hastings
\(-\nabla\)
\(d \approx 1\)
🏠
🚶♀️
\(d \gg 1\)
🪺
🐦
Target to explore
To sample from \(\mathrm p \propto e^{-U}\)
scales poorly with dimension
must average over all energy levels
single energy/speed level
$$\mathcal H(\boldsymbol q, \boldsymbol p) = \frac {p^2} {2 m(\boldsymbol q)} - \frac{m(\boldsymbol q)}{2} \quad ; \quad m=e^{-U/(d-1)}$$
$$\begin{cases} \dot{\boldsymbol q} = \boldsymbol u\\ \dot{\boldsymbol u} = -(I - \boldsymbol u \boldsymbol u^\top) {\color{red}\nabla U(\boldsymbol q) }/ (d-1) \end{cases}$$ and refresh direction \(\boldsymbol u \leftarrow \boldsymbol z/ \lvert \boldsymbol z \rvert \quad ; \quad \boldsymbol z \sim \mathcal N(\boldsymbol 0,I)\)
this samples microcanonical/isokinetic ensemble $$\mathrm p_\text{MC}(\boldsymbol q, \boldsymbol u) \propto \delta(H(\boldsymbol q, \boldsymbol u)) \propto \mathrm p (\boldsymbol q) \delta(|\boldsymbol u|^2 - 1)$$
To sample from \(\mathrm p \propto e^{-U}\)
MicroCanonical HMC (Robnik+2022)
Simon+2025, JCAP
>10 times less evaluations required
flbench, consistent benchmark for field-level from galaxy surveysunadjusted microcanonical
adjusted microcanonical
adjusted canonical, auto-tuned (NUTS), alternated (within Gibbs)
adjusted sampler
unadjusted sampler
microcanonical outperforms canonical
unadjusted outperforms adjusted
10 times less evaluations required
Mildly dependent with respect to formation model and volume
Probing smaller scales could be harder
MCLMC sampler + field-level preconditioning:
Inspired by NASA and ESA timelines
Long-range modulation of short range \(\implies{\color{brown} \delta_g} = b_1^E {\color{blue} \delta_m} + b_\phi {\color{green} f_\mathrm{NL}\phi_L} \)
Ideal demonstration for FLI
3 main PNG contributions,
2 options:
$$\mathrm{LRG}\, z=0.74$$
$$\mathrm{QSO}\, z=1.83$$
Consistent \(\approx 15 \%\) gain at \(f_\mathrm{NL} = 0\)
DESI reference simulations: PNGUnitsim-XL, largest PNG N-body sims of \((3\ \mathrm{Gpc}/h)^3\)
Recovers \(f_\mathrm{NL}\) and \(b_1\), assuming fitted \(p_\phi\)
Simon+2026 in prep
Example on DESI LRG NGC footprint
\(k_\mathrm{Nyq} \approx 0.07\, h/\mathrm{Mpc}\)
Constrained inside selection
Prior dominated outside
Simon+2026 in prep
Courtesy of
Ben Horowitz
FLI for Ly\(\alpha\)
PRELIMINARY
In collab with Ethan Smith & Marco Bonici
Systematics detection from Leave-One-Out-Probability Integral Transformed (LOO-PIT) field-level posterior
angular syst
Courtesy of
Information content of Higher-Order Statistics vs. Field-Level
automatically marginalized
simulated volume
Courtesy of Jonathan Hawla
PRELIMINARY\(s\)
\(s\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega := \{ \Omega_m, \Omega_\Lambda, H_0, \sigma_8, f_\mathrm{NL},...\}\)
\(s\)
\(s\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega := \{ \Omega_m, \Omega_\Lambda, H_0, \sigma_8, f_\mathrm{NL},...\}\)
\(s\)
\(s\)
\(\Omega\)
inference
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega := \{ \Omega_m, \Omega_\Lambda, H_0, \sigma_8, f_\mathrm{NL},...\}\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(\Omega\)
inference
$$\sqrt{P_{\delta} / P_{\delta^\mathrm{true}}}$$ \(\approx\) amplitude info
$$P_{\delta,\delta^\mathrm{true}} / \sqrt{P_{\delta}P_{\delta^\mathrm{true}}}$$ \(\approx\) phase info
Field-level inference
Summary stat inference
\(\Omega\)
\(s\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(s\)
marginalize
condition
marginalize
\(\Omega\)
\(s\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_L\)
condition
Cosmo model
\(\mathrm{p}(\Omega,s)\)
\(\mathrm{p}(\Omega \mid s)\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\mathrm{p}(\Omega,\delta_L,\delta_g, s)= \mathrm{p}(s \mid \delta_g) \, \mathrm{p}(\delta_g \mid \Omega,\delta_L)\, \mathrm{p}(\delta_L \mid \Omega)\, \mathrm{p}(\Omega)\)
\(\mathrm{p}(\Omega,\delta_L \mid \delta_g)\)
\(\mathrm{p}(\Omega \mid \delta_g)\)
\(\delta_g\)
\(\Omega\)
\(\delta_L\)
\(s\)
Cosmo model
Problem:
The Problem:
The Promise:
Field-level inference
Summary stat inference
\({\color{purple}\sigma_0}|1+{\color{purple}\sigma_\delta}\delta_g^\mathrm{det}|\)
Poisson \(\simeq \sigma_0=\sigma_\delta=1\), but fits show sub-Poisson
\(k_\mathrm{nyq} \leq 0.15 h/ \mathrm{Mpc}\)
\(\delta_g \sim \mathcal N(\delta_g^\mathrm{det},\, {\color{purple}❓})\)
\({\color{purple}\sigma_0}(1+{\color{purple}\sigma_{2}}k^2 + {\color{purple}\sigma_{\mu,2}}(\mu k)^2)\)
Negligible for currently probed scales.
Galaxy stochasticity = \(\delta_g^\mathrm{true} -\delta_g^\mathrm{det}\), and we take \(\delta_g^\mathrm{det}\) to be EFT best fit.
\(\sigma^2(\delta^\mathrm{det})\)
$$\sqrt{P_{\delta} / P_{\delta^\mathrm{true}}}$$ = amplitude info
$$P_{\delta,\delta^\mathrm{true}} / \sqrt{P_{\delta}P_{\delta^\mathrm{true}}}$$ = phase info
Foutus Mocks!
PS: \(k_\mathrm{Nyq} = \pi / l_\mathrm{cell}\)