Ishanu Chattopadhyay
Emergenet: Forecasting future mutations and emergence events
University of Chicago
Feb 7 2023
what are we trying to do?
Aaron Esser-Kahn
Predicting emergence events in specific viral species
Rank ordering animal strains on their pandemic risk
Meaningfully exploit current biosurveillance capacity
Step towards formulating escape-resistant vaccines
what are we trying to do?
How is it done today?
Lack of validation
How are we doing it?
Learn an instrinsic distance between genomic sequences
How are we doing it?
Prediction of dominant strains in seasonal Flu Epidemics
Estimating published IRAT scores from the Emergenet
Estimating published IRAT scores from the Emergenet
SARS-CoV2
Future
The e-distance Metric: Why Is This a Natural Metric?
a
b
c
d
e
Similar opinion vectors can spontaneously switch:
Our intrinsic metric quantifies the odds of this spontaneous switch