mathematics
computer science
social science
medicine
AI/ML learning theory and applications
Complex systems
Implication of AI in Future of Societay
University of Chicago Medicine
The Laboratory for Zero Knowledge Discovery
ishanu chattopadhyay
Problem: Event-level prediction in social systems,
e.g. predicting crime before it happens
Predictive intelligence for security
Ai
Can we predict complex spatio-temporal stochastic processes?
Rotaru, Victor, Yi Huang, Timmy Li, James Evans, and Ishanu Chattopadhyay. "Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a signature of enforcement bias in US cities." Nature human behaviour 6, no. 8 (2022): 1056-1068.
Clip from Joe Rogan's Podcast aired July 2022 for educational/non-commercial purposes under fair use guidelines.
The Problem of Free Will
in
social
behavior
prediction
The Underlying Math
Hotspots?
Very different from past efforts
Not based on standard "Deep Learning"
The Underlying Math
Not based on standard "Deep Learning"
Applies to any rare/extreme event phenomena
Ishanu Chattopadhyay, Yi Huang, James Evans et al. Deep Learning Without Neural Networks: Fractal-nets for Rare Event Modeling, 26 October 2020, PREPRINT (Version https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-86045/v1
93% accuracy
87% AUC
~70% specificity at ~80% sensitivity
Chicago Predictive Performance
10 actual crimes:
11 predicted:
8 correct:
2 missed:
3 false alarms
1 Week in advance
Within ~2 city blocks
ONLY Past eventlog as input
Triangles: actual events
heatmap: predicted risk 3 days ahead
Jan 1 2016 - April 1 2019
Philadelphia
100 crimes
Raise 103 flags
90 correct flags
13 false positives
10 missed
Could we have predicted this?
Double homicide
Jan 7 2019
Triple homicide incident
Jan 7 2019
https://www.inquirer.com/crime/kensington-triple-shooting-homicide-philadelphia-police-20190107.html
Triangles: actual events
heatmap: predicted risk 3 days ahead
Not just a predictor
Digital Twin of social interactions
Predict policy effects
Precise predictation
Reveal enforcement bias