Social and Political Data Science: Introduction

Karl Ho

School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences

University of Texas at Dallas

Clear and Present Danger: Hong Kong, Taiwan and US National Security  

Presentation prepared for the Collin County Republican Men's Clus (CCRMC) meeting, April 15, 2021

  • Why Taiwan, Hong Kong matter to US National Security?

  • What is at stake?

  • Clear danger: Hong Kong

  • Present danger: Taiwan

  • US Policies that can put national security at risk:

    • Ambiguity

    • Agenda setting power

    • Appeasement

  • Scenarios

Overview

Side note

 

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

Source: AFP

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

Source: The Guardian

"Hong Kong National Security Day"

Source: The Guardian

Hong Kong Identity: Hongkonger

Chinese

Hongkonger

  • Population: ~ 7 million

  • 1,300 US firms

  • Single largest U.S. trading partner on trade surplus

  • Hong Kong's currency system and finance

    • pegged to US dollars

    • Highest foreign reserve (per capita) in the world: ~$500 billion

    • Funds/reserve in government: ~US$200 billion

    • Stock market capitalization: ~US$6 trillion

US National interest in Hong Kong

  • Hong Kong is the the biggest trading partner with US, but Hong Kong is safest window to trade with China:

    • British legal system

    • Bilingual society

    • Laissez faire system 

  • 2021 is the watershed:
    • Hong Kong, which was ranked second for the first time in the history of the Index in 2020 after ranking first for 25 years, was not ranked in this year’s Index, which now includes only countries exercising full sovereign control over their economic policies.
                                                                                     - Heritage foundation​

US National interest in Hong Kong

US National interest in Hong Kong

  • Population: ~ 23 million

  • Taiwan economy

    • sixth highest foreign reserve: ~$540 billion

    • GDP (PPP): US$1.3 trillion (1/16 of US)

    • 10th largest U.S. goods trading partner supporting over 200,000 jobs in US

    • Leaders of the global high-end semi-conductor market

US National interest in Taiwan

  • US troops in Asia

    • 131,000
    • Japan, South Korea, Singapore

US National interest in Taiwan

Source: Today's Military

  • US troops in Asia

    • 131,000
    • Japan, South Korea, Singapore

US National interest in Taiwan

Source: Today's Military

Okinawa

Biden's policies on China, Taiwan and Hong Kong

China Taiwan Hong Kong
John Kerry to visit Shanghai Christopher Dodd to Taipei -
Meeting in Alaska - -
Biden phone call to Xi  - -

  • Biden's win will be a breather.

  • Global Times: opportunity for breakthrough, rebuilding trust 

  • Jin Canrong (Xi Jinping's policy advisor): "relations may still worsen, but not as quickly"

    • Containment of China expected

  • More sanctions on Hong Kong and Xinjiang officials unlikely

  • Tech companies

    • Huawei's CFO Meng likely to win court case in Canada

    • Huawei ban partially lifted

    • No more TikTok and WeChat sanctions

For China

  • Brain drain and emigration: >200,000

  • Losing in all fronts:

    • Asian financial center transitioning out

    • More FDI and expatriates considering relocation

    • Dissidents and Pan-democrat leaders disenfranchised

    • Persecutions under National Security Law

      • Thousands arrested or imprisoned

      • Most opposition leaders in prison, rest banned from department

Clear Danger: Hong Kong

Taiwan and Hong Kong

  • Bills passed related to Taiwan and Hong Kong

    • Taiwan Relations Act 

    • Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act

    • Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act

    • Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act 

    • Hong Kong Victims of Communism Support Act

    • Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act

  • Bipartisan consensus

  • Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Strong Republican influence)

  • Daily threat by PLAAF

  • High stake:

    • Semiconductor production and technologies

    • US weapon systems

    • Pivot/critical geopolitical location for Japan, ASEAN and US troops in Pacific

Present Danger: Taiwan

Present Danger: Taiwan

US and PLA vessels near collision in South China Sea in September: South China Morning Post

US Policies that can put national security at risk:

  • Ambiguity

  • Agenda setting power

  • Appeasement

US Policy: Ambiguity

  • If US is slow to respond, China leaders will take lead and make US reactionary.

  • If US is not clear and without actions, China will push the envelope.

  • The Triangular equilibrium days are gone because:

    • Hong Kong

    • Taiwan rejected One country, Two system offer

    • Balance of power structurally different in the 2020s

US Policy: Agenda setting

  • If US allows China to set agenda (e.g. Climate issue), 

    • Xi and his followers will be convinced he has taken control. This will further consolidate his control domestically

    • e.g. Alaska meeting led to national celebration in China, state media widely reporting China can lecture on American leaders.

US Policy: Appeasement

  • If US turns a blind eye to Hong Kong and Taiwan, it sets the precedent of allowing a free city built on Western values and Washington consensus model to fall.

  • History lessons:

    • Imagine US gave up Berlin and let Soviet Union and its proxy take it over. 

    • Neville Chamberlain and Edouard Daladier let go of Czechoslovakia to avert war with Hitler

Concluding... 

  • US is dangerously close to repeating history in the face of an unchecked aggressor.

  • Losing Hong Kong will not be inconsequential.

  • Losing Taiwan will be like another Pearl Harbor.

  • Asia Pacific situation is begging for actions.

Thank you!

Questions and comments are welcome!

Proposed Prescriptions

  • Address root problem of COVID

  • Clear and resolute actions: 

    • Full confrontation

    • Increase investment in Military 

    • Build and consolidate strategic allies:

      • Taiwan

      • Vietnam

      • the Philippines

      • Malaysia and Singapore

  • Full understanding of China policy tools

    • Soft and sharp powers

  • Rebuild US media influence in Asia 

Question

Q: Isn't Hong Kong China's territory?  Why bother interfering China's own internal affairs?

A: Hong Kong was turned over to China based on China-British Joint Declaration in 1984, a treaty listing all conditions China must fulfill so Britain will return Hong Kong (including the fully British territory of the Hong Kong island):

  • Hong Kong will have full democracy by 2007
  • Hong Kong autonomy
  • Hong Kong system unchanged for 50 years

These terms have been entirely broken and British Prime Minister Johnson recognized that.

Question

Q: Isn't it Britain's responsibility on Hong Kong?  Why it is related to US interest and national security?

A: Johnson has issued new visa policy to help 3 million BNO holders in Hong Kong.  This is considered extreme measures to save Hong Kong people who are seeking refuge/asylum (already happening).   US has parallel measures, indicating US government's recognition of magnitude of the problem.  Yet, if US is using passive voice on Hong Kong and Taiwan, we are only waiting for the Munich Agreement moment to come, taking ambiguity positions to allow aggressors to strike any time.

What is Thucydides Trap?

Graham Allison coined the phrase "Thucydides Trap" to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."

Source: Berggruen Institute

What is Thucydides Trap?

Graham Allison coined the phrase "Thucydides Trap" to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."