The Impact of Concurrent Campaigns on Referendum Voting:

The Case of Taiwan in 2018

 

Ting-wei Weng

Tsung-han Tsai

Ying-lung Chou
Ching-hsin Yu

Prepared for discussion at the APSA CGOTS Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, September 5, 2024

Discussion:

Discussant: Karl Ho

University of Texas at Dallas

Summary

  • Research Focus:
    • The paper investigates the effect of concurrent elections, particularly how a referendum vote is influenced when held alongside a higher-order election, such as a mayoral election.
    • focuses on Taiwan's 2018 election, where local elections and a multi-question referendum were held concurrently, with special attention to Taichung City.

Key Findings

  • Influence of Higher-Order Elections:
    • Referendum voting is significantly influenced by voter preferences toward political figures (such as mayors and parties) rather than the specific issues posed in the referendum.
    • Voters who supported the incumbent mayor (Lin Chia-lung) were less likely to participate in or approve of the referendum initiated by the challenger (Lu Shiow-yen), demonstrating that referendums become a tool for expressing approval or disapproval of politicians rather than issue-based voting.

Key Findings

  • Partisanship:
    • Partisanship played a crucial role in referendum voting. Voters leaning toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were less likely to approve the referendum questions, while those dissatisfied with President Tsai Ing-wen were more likely to approve the questions.

Key Findings

  • Limited Issue-Based Voting:
    • Contrary to expectations, attitudes toward the specific issue (e.g., air pollution) were not significantly correlated with voting decisions on the referendum question. Instead, political preferences were the dominant factor.

Key Findings

  • Concurrent Elections and Voter Turnout:
    • While holding elections concurrently increased overall voter turnout, it did so at the cost of reducing the salience of the referendum itself. Voters focused more on the higher-order mayoral election, allowing political attitudes to overshadow issue-based considerations.

Implications:

  • Referendums may fail to fulfill their intended purpose of facilitating issue-based democratic decision-making when held alongside more prominent elections.

  • Instead, they become tools for expressing political preferences about higher-order candidates and parties.

  • In question: efficacy of referendums as a mechanism for direct democracy, particularly when they are held concurrently with other elections.