Social and Political Data Science: Introduction

Data Methods

Karl Ho

School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences

University of Texas at Dallas

Introduction 

- Sir Francis Bacon

"ipsa scientia potestas est"

"Knowledge itself is Power."

Power=f(Size_{Knowledge},Veracity_{Knowledge},Speed_{Knowledge})

Ackoff, R.L., 1989. From data to wisdom. Journal of applied systems analysis, 16(1), pp.3-9.

"Knowledge is data."

"Data is power."

  • 1700s Agricultural Revolution 

  • 1780 Industrial Revolution

  • 1940 Information Revolution

  • 1950s Digital Revolution

  • Knowledge Revolution

  • Data Revolution

What is Data?

Data is everything.


 

  • Data is ever growing......

    • Moore's Law

    • Parkinson's Law

 

 

Moore's Law

Moore's Law

Moore's Law

General-purpose computing capacity grew at an annual rate of 58%.

 

Computing power doubles every 18 months.

Telecommunication

The world's capacity for bidirectional telecommunication grew at 28% per year, closely followed by the increase in globally stored information (23%)

Hilbert, M. and López, P., 2011. The world's technological capacity to store, communicate, and compute information. science, p.1200970.

Digital Revolution

Humankind's capacity for unidirectional information diffusion through broadcasting channels has experienced comparatively modest annual growth (6%). Telecommunication has been dominated by digital technologies since 1990 (99.9% in digital format in 2007), and the majority of our technological memory has been in digital format since 2000s.

Parkinson's Law of Data

“Data expands to fill the space available for storage.”

Quick note about size

Bits: 8 bits = 1 byte

Bytes: 1024 bytes = 1 KB (1 to 3 digits)

Kilobytes: 1024 KB = 1 MB (4 to 6 digits)

Megabytes: 1024 MB = 1 GB (7 to 9 digits)

Gigabytes: 1024 GB = 1 TB (10 to 12 digits)

Terabytes: 1024 TB = 1 PB (13 to 15 digits)

Petabytes: 1024 PB = 1 EB (16 to 18 digits)

Exabytes: 1024 EB = 1 ZB (19 to 21 digits)

Zettabytes: 1024 ZB = 1 YB (22 to 24 digits)

Yottabytes: more than enough... (25 to 27 digits)

A Taxonomy of Data

  1. Numbers

  2. Text

  3. Images

  4. Audio

  5. Video

  6. Signals

  7. Data of data: Metadata and Paradata

     

Categories of Data
(by method)

  1. Survey

  2. Experiments

  3. Qualitative Data

  4. Text Data

  5. Web Data

  6. Complex Data

    1. Network Data

    2. Multiple-source linked Data

What is Big Data?

The Big data is about data that has huge volume, cannot be on one computer. Has a lot of variety in data types, locations, formats and form. It is also getting created very very fast (velocity) (Doug Laney 2001).

The Big data is about data that has huge volume, cannot be on one computer. Has a lot of variety in data types, locations, formats and form. It is also getting created very very fast (velocity) (Doug Laney 2001).

What is Big Data?

Burt Monroe (2012)

5Vs of Big data 

  • Volume

  • Variety

  • Velocity

  • Vinculation

  • Validity 

Big Data Research

CSE - Computer and Information Science and Engineering
ENG - Engineering
SBE - Social Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Mathematics and Physical Science

National Institutes of Health (NIH)

Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences (OBSSR)
The National Archive of Computerized Data on Aging (NACDA)
program advances research on aging by helping researchers to profit from the under-exploited potential of a broad range of
datasets. NACD preserves and makes available the largest library of electronic data on aging in the United States

Data Sharing for Demographic Research (DSDR) provides data archiving, preservation,  dissemination and other data infrastructure services. DSDR works toward a unified legal,
technical and substantive framework in which to share re
search data in the population sciences.

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)

The USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
just announced eight new research projects for transforming big data sets and big ideas about earth science theories into
scientific discoveries. At the Center, scientists collaborate to perform state of the art synthesis to leverage comprehensive, long-term data.

Public Policy and Big Data

Mitroff, S.R. and Sharpe, B., 2017. Using big data to solve real problems through academic and industry partnerships. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, 18, pp.91-96.

Mahmoodi, J., Leckelt, M., van Zalk, M.W., Geukes, K. and Back, M.D., 2017. Big Data approaches in social and behavioral science: four key trade-offs and a call for integration. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences, 18, pp.57-62.

  • Prediction-explanation gap

  • Induction-deduction gap

  • Bigness-representativeness gap

  • Data access gap

Three challenges facing data science

 

  1. Generalization from samples to population

  2. Generalization from the control group to the treatment group

  3. Generalization from observed measurements to the underlying constructs of interest.

- Andrew Gelman

Data methods

Experimental design

Measurements

What is Data Science?

What is Data Science?

  1. Science of Data

  2. Understand Data Scientifically

The key word in "Data Science" is not Data....

- Jeff Leek

it is Science.

The long term impact of Data Science will be measured by the scientific questions we can answer with the data.

- Jeff Leek

Data Science Keywords

  • Data management

  • Data analytics

  • Data scientists

  • Data curation

  • Modeling

  • CRMs 

How Data are generated?

  • Computers

  • Web

  • Mobile devices

  • IoT (Internet of Things)

  • Further extension of human users (e.g. AI, avatars)

How Data are generated?

How Data are generated?

"Data Lake" Ubiquitous

Massive raw data repository in its rawest form pending processing.

Data Analytics vs.

Data Analysis

Data analytics refers to generation, acquisition, management, modeling and visualization of data.

Thomas Davenport and his colleagues (2007) emphasize the ability to "collect, analyze and act on data".

Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. 2007. Competing on analytics: The new science of winning. Harvard Business Press.

Data Analytics vs.

Data Analysis

Data analytics goes beyond only providing analysis of data but focuses on the action or decision making informed by data.

Social Data Analytics: A journey just set afoot

Social data was initially referred to data generated from social media.  It is now not confined to that generation mode but is more generally data generated by people or users.

Social data analytics encompasses the generation, management, modeling and visualization of social data.

.... social science is beginning to shape the world of big data. 

Much of big data is social data.... It is the responsibility of social scientists to assume their central place in the world of big data, to shape the questions we ask of big data, and to characterize what does and does not make for a convincing answer. 

- Monroe, Pan, Roberts, Sen and Sinclair 2015

Social (Data) Scientist's mission

Two major areas to which social scientists can contribute, based on decades of experience and work with end users, are:

  1. Inference                                   

  2. Data quality. 

- Foster et al. 2016

Social (Data) Scientist's mission

Compared to computer scientists and business analytics researchers, we are distinct in not only our familiarity with data, statistical models and inference. 

Social scientists pursue a good cause, something we can contribute: to make a difference, to bring public good and to shape a better society.

Social (Data) Scientist's mission

Grimmer, J., 2015. We are all social scientists now: how big data, machine learning, and causal inference work together. PS: Political Science & Politics, 48(1), pp.80-83.

Social scientists know that large amounts of data will not overcome the selection problems that make causal inference so difficult. 

The story of Google Flu Trend

By using Big Data of search queries, Google Flu Trend (GFT) predicted the flu-like illness rate in a population.

However, the journal Nature where GFT published the findings on figured the GFT overestimated as much as twice than the actual data.  Two political scientists helped fix and address the problem.

Lesson we learn:
Political Science can save the world!

The story of Google Flu Trend

Lazer, Kennedy, King and Vespignani (2014)

Traditional “small data” often offer information that is not contained (or containable) in big data, and the very factors that have enabled big data are enabling more traditional data collection (watch TED talk by Dr. Joel Selanikio). The Internet has opened the way for improving standard surveys, experiments, and health reporting.  (Lazer et al. 2014 Science)

A Theory of Data: Understanding Data Generation

Data Generation

Administrative Data

Administrative data are defined as data which derive from the operation of administrative systems, typically by public sector agencies

 

- Connelly et al. 2016

Data Methods

  1. Survey

  2. Experiments

  3. Qualitative Data

  4. Text Data

  5. Web Data

  6. Machine Data

  7. Complex Data

    1. Network Data

    2. Multiple-source linked Data

Made

Data

}

}

Found

Data

Statistical Modeling:
The Two Cultures 

Leo Breiman 2001: Statistical Science 

One assumes that the data are generated by a given stochastic data model.
The other uses algorithmic models and treats the data mechanism as unknown.
Data Model
Algorithmic Model
Small data
Complex, big data

Theory:
Data Generation Process

Data are generated in many fashions.   Picture this: independent variable x goes in one side of the box-- we call it nature for now-- and dependent variable y come out from the other side.

Theory:
Data Generation Process

Data Model

The analysis in this culture starts with assuming a stochastic data model for the inside of the black box. For example, a common data model is that data are generated by independent draws from response variables.

Response Variable= f(Predictor variables, random noise, parameters)

Reading the response variable is a function of a series of predictor/independent variables, plus random noise (normally distributed errors) and other parameters.  

Theory:
Data Generation Process

Data Model

The values of the parameters are estimated from the data and the model then used for information and/or prediction.

Theory:
Data Generation Process

 Algorithmic Modeling

The analysis in this approach considers the inside of the box complex and unknown. Their approach is to find a function f(x)-an algorithm that operates on x to predict the responses y.

The goal is to find algorithm that accurately predicts y.

Theory:
Data Generation Process

 Algorithmic Modeling

Unsupervised Learning

Supervised Learning         vs. 

Source: https://www.mathworks.com

Let the dataset change your mindset.

 

- Hans Rosling

Hans Rosling

Swedish physician and statistician

  • Founded Gapminder Foundation
  • Visualize historical data on public health and poverty

 

Hal Varian

Chief Economist, Google

Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.

Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics

Machine Learning and Econometrics

 

- Hal Varian

The ability to take data—to be able to understand it, to process it, to extract value from it, to visualize it, to communicate it—that’s going to be a hugely important skill in the next decades.

- Mike Driscoll

“The Three Sexy Skills of Data Geeks”: “…with the Age of Data upon us, those who can model, munge, and visually communicate data...

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Introduction - Data theory

  2. Data methods

  3. Statistics

  4. Programming

  5. Data Visualization

  6. Information Management

  7. Data Curation

  8. Spatial Models and Methods

  9. Machine Learning

  10. NLP/Text mining

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Introduction - Data theory

    1. Fundamentals

      1. Data concepts

      2. Data Generation Process (DGP)

    2. Algorithm-based vs. Data-based approaches

    3. Taxonomy

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Data methods

    1. ​Passive data

    2. Data at will

    3. Qualitative data

    4. Complex data

    5. Text data

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Statistics

    1. Sample and Population

    2. Inference

    3. Size and power

    4. Representation

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Programming

    1. R

    2. Python

    3. HTML

    4. Java script

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Data Visualization

    1. Tableau

    2. ggplot2

    3. Shiny

    4. D3.js

    5. Animation

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Information Management

    1. MapReduce

    2. Hadoop

    3. Cassandra

    4. MongoDB

    5. NoSQL

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Data curation

    1. Google OpenRefine

    2. Sampling

    3. Missing value concepts and management

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Spatial Models and Methods

    1. GIS

    2. R/Leaflet

    3. Python Map

    4. Remote Sensing

Data Science Roadmap

  1. Machine Learning

    1. Supervised

    2. Unsupervised

    3. Regression methods

    4. Neural Networks

Data Science Roadmap

  1. NLP/Text Mining

    1. Corpus

    2. Text Analysis

    3. Sentiment Analysis

    4. Natural Language Processing

Data Literacy

  1. Data generating process
  2. Graphic grammar
  3. Statistical judgement

 

Data Literacy

  1. Data generating process
    1. ​How data are generated
    2. Distribution
    3. Missing values
    4. Wrong data

 

Data Literacy

  1. Graphic grammar
    1. Bad charts deliver incorrect message
    2. Poor design
    3. Color
    4. Label
    5. Scale

Data Literacy

  1. Statistical understanding
    1. Size does (not) matter
    2. Representativeness does
    3. Forecast/prediction minded
    4. Explanation

Data Literacy

  1. Why we need numeric data?
  2. History of data

Darkest hour: Churchill and typist

  • Data Thinking

  • Multi-disciplinary Thinking

  • Machine Thinking