Social and Political Data Science: Introduction

Karl Ho

University of Texas at Dallas

Media and Party Politics in 2024 Taiwan elections

Prepared for the online meeting organized by the Sun Yat-sen School in Dallas, March 3, 2024, Dallas, USA

從2024大選看台灣媒體與政黨政治發展

Speaker bio.

Overview

  • General review of 2024 elections: over time

  • Party developments:

    • Party in parliament

    • Party systems

    • Polarization

  • Media: Agenda setting control

  • Data Analysis:

    • Party support and voter preferences

  • Electorate: structural change?

  • Observations

  • Implications

Introduction

The 2024 elections in Taiwan witnessed notable changes in multiple directions. First, the party system could see a "breaking the mould" moment when the third party emerges to impose durable change to the two party equilibrium.  More importantly, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) builds a new constituency composed of primarily educated and young voters who strongly refuse the two major parties.  

These voters will likely change the structure of the electorate divided generally on traditional issues of national identity and relationship with China.   This structural change could be systemically reshaping the party system and uttering an era of "new politics" in the new democracy.

Observing Taiwan elections 2024

Observing Taiwan elections 2024

Observing Taiwan elections 2024

Observing Taiwan elections 2024

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2022

2016

2018

2022

2020

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

2024

Source: Taiwanplus.com

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

2024

Source: Taiwanplus.com

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

2024

Source: Taiwanplus.com

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

2024

Source: Taiwanplus.com

Taiwan elections 2016 - 2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

2024

2016

2018

2022

2020

Party in parliament （立委）

Party in parliament （立委）

Party list Constituency
Party Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Total seats Change
DPP 4,982,062 36.16 13 6,095,276 45.09 38 51 –10
KMT 4,764,576 34.58 13 5,401,933 39.96 39 52 +14
TPP 3,040,615 22.07 8 403,357 2.98 0 8 +3

Observations

  • 2024 elections are primarily driven by expansion of middle segment (中間選民) of the electorate. 

  • Notable is not about how they select their choices, but how they de-select!

  • These voters are well aware of the result of sending the plurality of DPP to presidency, they still insist to vote for TPP and Ko!

  • Why?

Observations

  • Is there "China" factor?

    • Taiwan voters' indifference to China influence is notable in this election, which leads to little or no effect in DPP's campaign strategy of "China's interference".

As a result...

  • China factor operates differently in 2024 elections

  • Any connections with China can be construed in campaign strategy as unpatriotic:

    •         China becomes liability/baggage to parties supporting China/peace/trade....

    •         China becomes assets/capital for parties opposed any interactions

\rightarrow
\rightarrow

Observations

  • Is there "Hong Kong" factor?

    • In 2020, DPP's electoral support was greatly helped by the "Hong Kong" factor including rejection of one-country, two-systems and generally CCP coercive approach of influence through blunt force and hard power.

    • Sympathetic sentiment of Hong Kong protesters and pro-democracy supporters almost absent in 2024 (except Jaw Shaw-kong's mention of Jimmy Lai during interviews)

Volume trend (聲量趨勢）

Volume trend (聲量趨勢/月）

Volume trend (正負比): Ko

Volume trend (正負比): Ko

Volume trend (正負比): Ko

Volume trend (正負比): Hou

Volume trend (正負比): Hou

Volume trend (正負比): Lai

Volume trend (正負比): Lai

Volume trend (正負比): Lai

Political Polarization: Three Party Structure

Most important issue: Taiwan

Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University

Issue Percentage
Economic development 35.19
Cross-strait relations 20.22
Education policy 13.86
Judicial reform problem 11.34
Annuity reform 5.61
Transitional justice 2.60
No opinion 2.45
It's hard to say 1.27
Refuse to answer 0.83
Energy policy 0.65
House prices 0.43
National defense problem 0.29
Livelihood issues 0.16
Corruption Problem 0.10
Income inequality 0.10
Social welfare problem 0.05
Don't know 4.84
Total 100

Most important issue: Taiwan

Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University

Issue Percentage
Economic development 35.19
Cross-strait relations 20.22
Education policy 13.86
Judicial reform problem 11.34
Annuity reform 5.61
Transitional justice 2.60
No opinion 2.45
It's hard to say 1.27
Refuse to answer 0.83
Energy policy 0.65
House prices 0.43
National defense problem 0.29
Livelihood issues 0.16
Corruption Problem 0.10
Income inequality 0.10
Social welfare problem 0.05
Don't know 4.84
Total 100 
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7806&id=6965

Party identification

Independence vs. Unification (統獨）

Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962

Independence vs. Unification

Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962

Independence vs. Unification

Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962

Volume trend (正負比): Party 黨

DPP (民進黨)

KMT (國民黨)

TPP (民眾黨)

Volume trend (正負比): Party 黨

DPP (民進黨)

KMT (國民黨)

TPP (民眾黨)

Observations

  • New structure:

    • Close to 30% of new voters show disdain of both blue and green camps (namely KMT and DPP)

    • Young (middle schoolers), educated, middle class

    • Flooded rallies in Taipei in support of TPP (Ko and Huang)

  • Implications:

    • Third party?

    • Both DPP and KMT must reform!

Taiwan Talkshows on YouTube 2024

Taiwan Talkshows on YouTube

Program Subscription totalviews novideos viewpervideo Channel
關鍵時刻(劉寶傑) 3,060,000 4,514,719,289 33500 134,767.74 EBC
少康戰情室(趙少康) 1,410,000 1,809,366,976 33946 53,301.33 TVBS
新聞大白話(彭志宇) 1,250,000 1,930,234,216 26,742 72,179.87 TVBS
新聞深喉嚨(王又正) 頭條開講 1,120,000 938,655,544 16206 57,920.25 CTI
年代向錢看(陳凝觀) 1,070,000 875,671,569 17993 48,667.35 ERA
新聞挖挖哇(鄭弘儀) 907,000 969,734,640 17914 54,132.78 JET
台灣最前線(許仲江) 841,000 750,144,176 33671 22,278.64 FTV
國民大會(于美人) 626,000 423,730,053 12055 35,149.73 TVBS
新聞龍捲風 594,000 409,607,276 4814 85,086.68 CTI
大政治大爆卦 545000 424,621,139 15318 35,149.73 CTI

Who puts "柯文哲" to headlines?

TVBS NEWS 61 10.8%
中天新聞 47 8.3%
東森新聞 CH51 45 8.0%
CNEWS匯流新聞網 40 7.1%
柯文哲 39 6.9%
中時新聞網 31 5.5%
台視新聞 TTV NEWS 22 3.9%
三立LIVE新聞 19 3.4%
關鍵時刻 15 2.7%
TVBS選新聞 14 2.5%
風傳媒 The Storm Media 14 2.5%
Bit King比特王出任務 10 1.8%
華視新聞 CH52 10 1.8%

Who puts "柯文哲" to headlines?

Implications

  • Will Taiwan break the mold and become a three party system?

  • Three-player game should lead to a result of coalition with two of the three players (e.g. Britain in 2010).

  • In the Taiwan case, building coalition had a bad record, thus unlikely to build a stable government without majority.

  • How likely the new government can improve cross-Strait relations?

Implications: Media

  • Who will be most affected by media on political decisions?

  • How?

  • Media is in control of agenda setting.

  • It may not help voters select whom.  But it will help voters de-select whom!

  • How the three parties reform in next two to four years will determine Taiwan future party development and system

Implications: Parties

  • How to effectively move voters and rebuild constituent support?

  • Young voters?

  • More educated voters?

  • Tondu issues?

Thank you!

Questions and comments are welcome!