Karl Ho
University of Texas at Dallas
The China Factor in Taiwan's Election in the Information Era
Prepared for "Navigating New Challenges in US-China-Taiwan Relations" Conference organized by the Asian Pacific Peace Research Institute, January 10, 2024, Taipei, Taiwan ROC
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Karl Ho is:
- Professor of Instruction at University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences (EPPS)
- Organized Taiwan Democracy Symposium at UTD
- Founder, Taiwan Research Academy at UTD
- Co-founder of the UTD Social Data Analytics and Research program (SDAR)
- Founder of DataGeneration.io
- Author of Data Programming
- Co-edited Taiwan: Environment, Political and Social Issues (2021)
- Co-Principal Investigator of the Hong Kong Election Study project
- Website: karlho.com (talks, lecture, publications)
Speaker bio.
Overview
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China factor in Taiwan politics
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China Manipulate elections as political warfare
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Election interference: Some literature
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Public opinion
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Media and social media
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Conclusion: Ramifications and Implications
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Addendum: thought-provoking questions
China factor in Taiwan politics
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Chinese identity
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Trade
- 2000's: ECFA, CSSTA
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Election time interference
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1996: Missile crisis
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2020's PLAAF incursions
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Row over "92 Consensus"
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Ban Taiwan from WHA, ICAO
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De-recognitions (nine countries including Honduras (2023), Nicaragua (2021))
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Xi's address to Taiwan on "92 consensus"
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PLAAF incursions
Barss (2022)
- documents China/CCP's records and attempts to influence elections in Taiwan
- Media
- Economic connections
- Parties
- Politicians
- Internet and social media (Disinformation and Misinformation)
Wang (2024)
- China's intention of manipulating public opinion and electoral outcomes is not questionable.
- When out of means, options for Beijing become limited except hard power coercion
All indications show that that Chinese leaders will continue their uncompromising policy toward Taiwan — and the history of tense and chilly cross-Strait relations under DPP leadership may repeat itself should Lai win the election on 13 January."
- TY Wang 2024
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Objectives
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Win support for Pro-Beijing agenda
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Divide and Conquer
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Undermine democratic institutions
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Electoral systems
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Party systems
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Judicial systems
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Ultimate goal: Lower Enemy Guard and Expand Control
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Hong Kong example: stealing voting data, now change the rules
China Manipulates Elections as Political Warfare
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Election systems
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Party system:
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Pro-Beijing parties
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"Neutral/Middle of the Road" parties
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Pan-democratic parties
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Target leaders for attacks
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Plant "radical" dissent parties
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Negotiations through "middle-man"
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Media and Social Media
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EMCB
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Advertising (and PR) industry
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From Covert to Overt intervention: How China Divides and Conquers in Hong Kong
Formula/Sequence for success:
- Gradual process ("Time is on our side")
- Instill Stockholm syndrome
- Dissolve opposition organization and resolve
- Elimination by new "law"
Who do you think is making fake news during
the election? (TIGCR 2020)
| Source | Percent (multiple selection) |
|---|---|
| Candidates | 48% |
| China | 47.85% |
| Blue media | 46.04% |
| Green media | 44.29% |
| DPP | 31.95% |
| KMT | 30.58% |
What is the impact of fake news on society? (TIGCR 2020)
| Impact | Percent (multiple selection) |
|---|---|
| To influence election results | 51.73 |
| To make political divergence | 56.97 |
| To make people divergence | 65.84 |
| To cause social panic and chaos | 67.74 |
| Let interested people influence the election easily | 64.28 |
| No effect | 2.16 |
Taiwan Talkshows on YouTube
| Program | Subscription | totalviews | novideos | viewpervideo | Channel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 關鍵時刻(劉寶傑) | 3,060,000 | 4,514,719,289 | 33500 | 134,767.74 | EBC |
| 少康戰情室(趙少康) | 1,410,000 | 1,809,366,976 | 33946 | 53,301.33 | TVBS |
| 新聞大白話(彭志宇) | 1,250,000 | 1,930,234,216 | 26,742 | 72,179.87 | TVBS |
| 新聞深喉嚨(王又正) 頭條開講 | 1,120,000 | 938,655,544 | 16206 | 57,920.25 | CTI |
| 年代向錢看(陳凝觀) | 1,070,000 | 875,671,569 | 17993 | 48,667.35 | ERA |
| 新聞挖挖哇(鄭弘儀) | 907,000 | 969,734,640 | 17914 | 54,132.78 | JET |
| 台灣最前線(許仲江) | 841,000 | 750,144,176 | 33671 | 22,278.64 | FTV |
| 國民大會(于美人) | 626,000 | 423,730,053 | 12055 | 35,149.73 | TVBS |
| 新聞龍捲風 | 594,000 | 409,607,276 | 4814 | 85,086.68 | CTI |
| 大政治大爆卦 | 545000 | 424,621,139 | 15318 | 35,149.73 | CTI |
Taiwan News channels on YouTube (TIGCR)
| News Channel | Label | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVBS 新聞台 | TVBS | 24.45 | 26.78 | 31.94 | 31.45 |
| 三立新聞台 | SET | 23.21 | 27.05 | 31.95 | 29.33 |
| 東森新聞台 | ETTV | 22.79 | 26.83 | 29.06 | 24.3 |
| 民視新聞台 | FTV | 20.72 | 22.38 | 24.84 | 22.22 |
| 年代新聞台 | ERA | 9.07 | 10.93 | 16.27 | 10.41 |
| 中天新聞台 | CTI | 19.02 | 24.8 | 24.58 | 9.65 |
| 壹電視新聞台 | NTV | 5.88 | 8 | 8.98 | 8.35 |
| 中視新聞台 | CTV | 2.65 | 3.7 | 3.82 | 6.63 |
| 非凡新聞台 | USTV | 4.2 | 4.88 | 7.28 | 5.86 |
| 寰宇新聞台 | CN | 2.56 | 3.08 | 3.92 | 3.71 |
| 華視新聞頻道 | CTS | 1.61 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 2.2 |
| 寰宇新聞二台 | CN HD | 1.56 | 1.2 | 1.67 |
"China interference" (中國介選) on news
| Channel | Reports | Label |
|---|---|---|
| 民視新聞網 | 51 | FTV |
| 三立LIVE新聞 | 32 | SET |
| 三立iNEWS | 23 | SET |
| 全國第一勇 | 22 | FTV |
| 鏡新聞 | 20 | MNEWS |
| 三立新聞網SETN | 17 | SET |
| 年代向錢看 | 14 | ERA |
| 自由時報電子報 | 14 | Libety Times |
| 華視新聞 CH52 | 14 | CTS |
| 台視新聞 TTV NEWS | 13 | TTV |
| 民視讚夯 Formosa TV Thumbs Up | 13 | FTV |
| 94看新聞 | 12 | SET |
| 中天新聞 | 9 | CTI |
Election interference by a foreign power can increase political partisanship in a targeted state and can be an effective tool for throwing weight behind a candidate.
Wilson (2022)
- When external governments intervene into democratic elections in a partisan manner, domestic political actors will react strategically.
- Domestic political actors will seek to exploit the intervention for their own political gain.
CCP's new strategy:
- the threats approach have been replaced with narrowly targeted efforts such as politicians and party leaders to mobilize Beijing-friendly segments of Taiwan’s population.
Conclusion
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2024 elections are primarily driven by expanded middle segment of the electorate.
- Generally apprehensive of either major party and Chinese influence
- Where is the "Hong Kong" factor?
- In 2020, DPP's electoral support was greatly helped by the "Hong Kong" factor including rejection of one-country, two-systems and generally CCP coercive approach of influence through blunt force and hard power.
- Sympathetic sentiment of Hong Kong protesters and pro-democracy supporters almost absent in 2024 (except Jaw Shaw-kong's mention of Jimmy Lai during interviews)
- Taiwan voters' indifference to China influence is notable in this election, which leads to little or no effect in DPP's campaign strategy of "China's interference".
As a result...
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China factor operates differently in 2024 elections
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Any connections with China can be construed in campaign strategy as unpatriotic:
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China becomes liability/baggage to parties supporting China/peace/trade....
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China becomes assets/capital for parties opposed any interactions
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\rightarrow
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Implications
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Will Taiwan break the mold and become a three party system?
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Three-player game should lead to a result of coalition with two of the three players (e.g. Britain in 2010).
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In the Taiwan case, building coalition had a bad record, thus unlikely to build a stable government without majority.
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How likely the new government can improve cross-Strait relations?
The Internet and the Democratization of Civic Culture
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Four pillars for civic culture:
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Knowledge
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Loyalty to democratic values
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Practices and routines
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Identity as citizens
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Taiwan elections 2016 - 2022
2016
2018
2022
2020
2016
2018
2022
2020
Political Polarization: Three Party Structure
Takeaway
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Asymmetry of impacts in the national identity continuum prevails. Independence proponents have been showing stronger support for DPP than unification proponents to KMT.
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Taiwanese identity polarizes further the blue and green in 2016.
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Economic factors may not be the predominant driving forces of future elections, in competition with other identity factors and party effects.
Critical question:
Which party can help maintain status quo better than others?
Takeaway
Most important issue: Taiwan
Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University
| Issue | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Economic development | 35.19 |
| Cross-strait relations | 20.22 |
| Education policy | 13.86 |
| Judicial reform problem | 11.34 |
| Annuity reform | 5.61 |
| Transitional justice | 2.60 |
| No opinion | 2.45 |
| It's hard to say | 1.27 |
| Refuse to answer | 0.83 |
| Energy policy | 0.65 |
| House prices | 0.43 |
| National defense problem | 0.29 |
| Livelihood issues | 0.16 |
| Corruption Problem | 0.10 |
| Income inequality | 0.10 |
| Social welfare problem | 0.05 |
| Don't know | 4.84 |
| Total | 100 |
Most important issue: Taiwan
Source: TEDS, National Chengchi University
| Issue | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Economic development | 35.19 |
| Cross-strait relations | 20.22 |
| Education policy | 13.86 |
| Judicial reform problem | 11.34 |
| Annuity reform | 5.61 |
| Transitional justice | 2.60 |
| No opinion | 2.45 |
| It's hard to say | 1.27 |
| Refuse to answer | 0.83 |
| Energy policy | 0.65 |
| House prices | 0.43 |
| National defense problem | 0.29 |
| Livelihood issues | 0.16 |
| Corruption Problem | 0.10 |
| Income inequality | 0.10 |
| Social welfare problem | 0.05 |
| Don't know | 4.84 |
| Total | 100 |
Party identification
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7806&id=6965
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7806&id=6965Party identification
Party identification
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962
Party identification
Source: National Chengchi University, https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7805&id=6962Will China invade/take over Taiwan?
Will China invade/take over Taiwan?
Conclusion
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Critical election introduces changes in political party system
- Taiwan generally two party system
- Proportional representation (PR) votes (不分區票）allows third party to take votes from two major parties
- More away from KMT or blue camp since 2014
- Major factors affecting blue camp:
- Loss of stewardship of status quo
- Loss of young voters due to education policy
- Loss of votes to middle of the road parties