Karl Ho
University of Texas at Dallas
Early voting and post-election prospects: some observations
Prepared for Special class delivered to Soochow University, October 28, 2024
-
Karl Ho is:
- Professor of Instruction at University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences (EPPS)
- Principal Investigator, Taiwan Studies Initiative, UTD
- Taiwan Research Academy at UTD
- BEST Huayu Scholarship at UTD
- Co-founder of the UTD Social Data Analytics and Research program (SDAR)
- Founder of DataGeneration.io
- Co-editor: Taiwan: Environment, Political and Social Issues (2021)
- Co-Principal Investigator of the Hong Kong Election Study project
- Website: karlho.com (talks, lectures, publications)
Speaker bio.
Background
-
The U.S. president is not elected by popular vote but through the Electoral College, a unique feature among democracies. This system was established by the U.S. Constitution as a compromise, allowing states to have proportional influence based on their population while maintaining federal balance.
Electoral College
-
The Electoral College comprises 538 electors, with each state’s allotment based on its congressional representation (House and Senate seats). A majority of 270 votes is required to win the presidency.
Swing/battleground states
-
Key swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Early voting
3. Why Early Voting Matters
1. Access and Representation
Early voting provides greater access to individuals who face barriers on Election Day, including working voters, people with disabilities, and those in remote areas. Increased access through early voting can enhance democratic representation and inclusivity.
2. Impact on Election Dynamics
• Early voting changes how candidates and parties campaign. With ballots being cast before traditional “October surprises,” campaigns must frontload their strategies and manage voter perceptions earlier.
• Analyzing early voting data also helps pollsters and strategists forecast turnout and identify demographic trends, although early data often leads to complex interpretations due to the varying reliability of partisan turnout trends.
Early voting
Source: New York Times
Since electoral laws vary by state, some states have earlier start date than others.
- Minnesota: starting on 46 days before election day
- Alabama: no early voting
- Calendar
- Early voting by state
- What is the early voting data to date?
Absentee ballot vs. mail in ballot
Absentee voting
Although most states have absentee voting, deadlines and rules on who can take part vary. Some states require an excuse to vote absentee. Others do not. In most states, you must request an absentee ballot to vote in each election. But in some states, you may qualify to sign up to receive absentee ballots for every election. Learn if your state offers permanent absentee voting.
Vote-by-mail
Instead of absentee voting programs, some states offer vote-by-mail (also known as all-mail) programs. They automatically send ballots to all registered voters in the state before Election Day. See which states offer vote-by-mail programs.
Source: https://www.usa.gov/absentee-voting
Early voting
Source: New York Times
Source: New York Times
Early voting
Early voting
Post-election prospects
- In the United States
- Red wall vs. Blue wall
- Congress
- Domestic policy
- Inflation/economy
- Illegal immigrants
- Energy
Post-election prospects
- World
- wars
- trade
- on China
- New tarriffs
- on Taiwan
- Will the new president protect Taiwan?
- Harris?
- Trump?
- Richard Bush and Ryan Hass (Brookings)
Source: Economist
Source: AP