Limits to Arbitrage in Markets with Stochastic Settlement Latency

Discussion by Katya Malinova

Nikolaus Hautsch, Christoph Scheuch, and Stefan Voigt

Bitcoin prices in USD, May 25 2018, 17 exchanges

Arbitrage?

Equity trading infrastructure

Sue wants to sell ABX

Bob wants to buy ABX

sell order

buy order

Clearing House

Stock Exchange

Broker

Broker

3rd party tech

custodian

custodian

record beneficial ownership

central bank for payment

Where does trading occur?

Trading in Crypto Markets

Centralized Exchanges

Alternative Markets/Liquidity Systems

Smart on-chain contracts ("Decentralized Exchanges")

Trading on a Crypto Exchange

trade

Settle on the blockchain for digital "assets"

Wire transfer for fiat

Arbitrage on a Crypto Exchange

BTC/USD

ask: 7,600 

bid: 7,550

BTC/USD

ask: 7,500 

bid: 7,450

buy low 

sell high

Arbitrage on a Crypto Exchange

BTC/USD

ask: 7,600 

bid: 7,550

BTC/USD

ask: 7,500 

bid: 7,450

buy BTC

sell BTC

move BTC to Kraken

Arbitrage on a Crypto Exchange

Wire: free*; 1-5 days

Credit card: 3.5%

trading fee: 10-25 bps

flat fee in BTC \(\approx\) $4-8

\(\approx\) 10-60 minutes

trading fee: 0-26 bps

35 USD + 0.125%

($5 if >$50,000)

1-3 business days;

possible other fees/delays

The impact of the different "legs"/costs in the process?

Arbitrage on a Crypto Exchange

fees and TIME

fees and TIME

\(\Rightarrow\) Compare arbitrage opportunities across "assets"? E.g., with different confirmation times?

Kraken's estimated deposit processing times:

BTC: 60 minutes

ETH: 6 minutes

XRP: near-instant

Also: exchanges are heterogeneous w.r.t. confirmation times, too (10-60 minutes for BTC?)

fees and TIME

\(\Rightarrow\) Can this be exploited to better understand the role of delayed confirmation vs. other frictions?

Some exchanges allow short-selling (e.g., Kraken)

\(\Rightarrow\) Can buy and (short-)sell simultaneously 

Arbitrage on a Crypto Exchange

FEES and TIME

FEES and TIME

\(\Rightarrow\) Compare arbitrage opportunities in crypto-to-fiat vs. crypto-to-crypto?

Faster and cheaper to deposit/withdraw cryptocurrencies (relative to fiat)

FEES and TIME

Able to hedge (some of) the risks of storing funds in crypto (instead of USD) after the CBOE BTC futures (Dec 2017?)

Faster and cheaper to deposit/withdraw cryptocurrencies (relative to fiat)

\(\Rightarrow\) Easier/cheaper arbitrage? (E.g., cheaper to "store" BTC on "sell-exchanges"?)

FEES and TIME

Paper: limits to arbitrage because of risk-aversion.

Footnote 11: "can also think of [...] risk-neutral and capital-constrained" 

Unlimited arbitrage capital \(\Rightarrow\) hold deposits at all exchanges & resolve both in/out and cross-exchange delays

fees and TIME

To what extent are these approaches equivalent?

Further Comments: Choice of Exchanges?

Higher demand for BTC \(\Rightarrow\) more transactions to be confirmed

\(\Rightarrow\) Latency and volatility are correlated (?)

\(\Rightarrow\) Implications? (Estimated bounds too conservative?)

Further Comments

Explanations for systematic price deviations?

  • E.g., capital controls \(\Rightarrow\) "Kimchi premium" 
  • Persistently lower prices on BTC-e possibly explained by no wire from U.S. citizens or U.S. banks (Kroeger and Sarkar (2017)) + poor governance

@katyamalinova

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