Why you should distrust polls
@maartenzam
Dataharvest | EIJC
Mechelen
May 19 2017
The Poll Trap
Media order survey
Survey company conducts
Media report
Users click, read, watch
Media order survey
...
Everybody
?
No
Statisticians
5 of the problems with polls
Problem I
Polling itself
Problem II
Sample errors
What happened?
Selection bias
Never ever report on public, online polls
Nonresponse bias
Problem III
Survey results are interpreted
Problem IV
Pollster herding
Problem V
Humans suck at uncertainty
So what to do?
Check methodology
In person vs. online
Random sampling?
Sample size
Weighing and other interpretations
Find confidence intervals
Don't report on changes that are well within intervals
Don't use decimals
Visualize results
But show uncertainty
Use averages of polls
Don't jump on a single poll
Be on the watch for herding
There should be variation between polls
Thanks!
slides.com/maartenzam/dh-polls
Why you should distrust polls
By maartenzam
Why you should distrust polls
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