Roll with the Polls

Maarten Lambrechts 

Malofiej 24 | Pamplona

@maartenzam

?

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Explorable Explanations

The Poll Trap

Media order survey

Survey company conducts

Media report

Users click, read, watch

Media order new survey

...

Everybody

Statisticians

?

No

\text{CI} = \bar X \pm 1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}
CI=X¯±1.96σn\text{CI} = \bar X \pm 1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}
f(x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} e^{ -\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} }
f(x)=12πσ2e(xμ)22σ2 f(x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} e^{ -\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} }
Pr(\mathrm{Reject}\; H|H) = Pr(p \leq \alpha) = \alpha
Pr(RejectHH)=Pr(pα)=αPr(\mathrm{Reject}\; H|H) = Pr(p \leq \alpha) = \alpha

Introducing

Rock 'n Poll

So

Visualize uncertainty when there is uncertainty

Fight

xenographphobia

Fine print

Slide 1 | Pencil picture: emagic

Slide 8 | Alternatives to bar charts: UW Graphics

Slide 11 | Star Wars intervals: Maarten Lambrechts

Slide 11 | Fan chart: Congressional Budget Office

Slide 11 | Uncertainty visualizations: UW IDL

Slide 12 | Horizon Graphs: Flowing Data

Slide 12 | Radial Horizon Graphs: Tennis Visuals

Slide 12 | Spotlight: Kristina Szűcs

Slide 12 | Peyton Manning: New York Times

Slide 12 | Strip Plot: Maarten Lambrechts