Meet Your Own
Cognitive Biases

…and learn how they affect your daily life

A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment.[1] Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world. Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.[2][3][4]

–Wikipedia.org

The tendency to prefer people that are like ourselves

and

avoid people that are unlike ourselves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_inclusion

Effects of Affinity Bias

Lack of diversity in companies

Disregarding needs of other groups (e.g. accessibility)

Countering Affinity Bias

Sequence

2, 4, 6

Hypothesis

Confidence

Fits

1. fill in your hypothesis

 3. choose a test sequence

 2. and your confidence in it

4. check if sequence fits the secret rule

_, _, _

The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Effects of Confirmation Bias

Preference of test cases that confirm our hypothesis

Countering Confirmation Bias

Always try to disprove your hypothesis first

Likeliness of … is higher than …

lightning strike VS shark attack

plane crash VS lottery win

Availability Bias

A mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

Effects of Availability Bias

Over/under estimation of risk

Counter a big incident happened recently, disregarding far more likely things

Countering Availability Bias

Make better data/facts available to you! Don't stick to war stories

TODO Bandwagon Bias Demo

Bandwagon Bias

TODO Confirmation Bias Definition

liquid
capital

____ €

1. buy or sell

A
shares × price = investment

B
shares × price = investment

C
shares × price = investment

total
capital

____ €

10

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

3

30

5

0

0

12

0

0

70

100

____ €

____ €

10

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

5

12

____ €

____ €

9

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

6

12

____ €

____ €

7

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

___ × ___ € = ____ €

7

13

Sunk Cost Fallacy

TODO Sunk Cost Fallacy Definition

B

You win 100 € on ⚅
or 0 € on ⚀-⚄

A

You win 70 €

C

You loose 70 €

D

You loose 0 € on ⚅
or 100 € on ⚀-⚄

x = 500
x_A = x + 70 = 570
x_B = \begin{cases} x+100 & = 600 & \text{⚅}\\ x & = 500 & \text{⚀⚁⚂⚃⚄} \end{cases} = 516,67
x_C = x - 70 = 430
x_D = \begin{cases} x-0 & = 500 & \text{⚅}\\ x-100 & = 400 & \text{⚀⚁⚂⚃⚄} \end{cases}
\overline{x_D} = \frac{1}{6} \times 500 + \frac{5}{6} \times 400 = 416,67 < x_C
\overline{x_B} = \frac{1}{6} \times 600 + \frac{5}{6} \times 500 = 516,67 < x_A

Loss Aversion

TODO Loss Aversion Definition

TODO Halo effect

Meet Your Cognitive Biases

By Michael Kutz

Meet Your Cognitive Biases

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