Mobility Modelling

Lecture 6 - Pedestrian Mobility Modelling

13 March 2023

Mozhgan Pourmoradnasseri, Ph.D.

References:

  1. "Urban Network Analysis - Tools for Modeling Pedestrian Flows in Cities" by Andres Sevtsuk
  2. Sevtsuk, Andres, et al. "A big data approach to understanding pedestrian route choice preferences: Evidence from San Francisco." Travel behaviour and society 25 (2021): 41-51.
  3. Sevtsuk, Andres, Rounaq Basu, and Bahij Chancey. "We shape our buildings, but do they then shape us? A longitudinal analysis of pedestrian flows and development activity in Melbourne." PloS one 16.9 (2021): e0257534.

Active mobility

Active mobility refers to any form of transportation that involves physical activity, such as walking, cycling, or using a scooter.

Ma, Yan. Processes, microstructure, and mechanical properties of cold-rolled medium-Mn steel. Verlag Mainz, 2020.

Tallinn

Transportation and emission

European Environment Agency

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Noussan, Michel. "Effects of the Digital Transition in Passenger Transport-an Analysis of Energy Consumption Scenarios in Europe." (2019).

Public Health

BMI

Noussan, Michel. "Effects of the Digital Transition in Passenger Transport-an Analysis of Energy Consumption Scenarios in Europe." (2019).

Benefits of promoting active mobility

  1. Health benefits: reduce the risk of chronic diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity.

  2. Environmental benefits: produces zero emissions and does not contribute to air pollution or greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. Reduced traffic congestion:  reducing the number of cars on the road, which can lead to shorter commute times for everyone.

  4. Cost-effectiveness: people are more likely to interact with their surroundings and with each other when traveling by foot or bike. It can also help to create safer and more vibrant public spaces.

  5. Improved mental health: reducing stress, improving mood, and providing opportunities for social interaction and exposure to nature.

Network plays an important role

  • The role of sidewalks in facilitating urban mobility in everyday life is crucial.
  • There is a shortage of available sidewalk data, which not only affects the accessibility and walkability of cities but also limits policymakers in devising effective measures to improve pedestrian facilities.
  • Despite the increasing global emphasis on prioritizing pedestrians over vehicles, significant data gaps have made it challenging to map, analyze, and model pedestrian infrastructure.
  • This lack of data makes it difficult to conduct research on pedestrian infrastructure and hinders the development of accurate, location-based apps for pedestrians, wheelchair users, street vendors, and other sidewalk users by the technology industry.
Omar, Kazi Shahrukh, et al. "Crowdsourcing and Sidewalk Data: A Preliminary Study on the Trustworthiness of OpenStreetMap Data in the US." arXiv preprint arXiv:2210.02350 (2022).
Zhang, Yuxiang, Sachin Mehta, and Anat Caspi. "Collecting Sidewalk Network Data at Scale for Accessible Pedestrian Travel." Proceedings of the 23rd International ACM SIGACCESS Conference on Computers and Accessibility. 2021.

First life, then spaces, then buildings- the other way around never works ...

Jan Gehl  Life between Buildings (1971)

  • A measure of the ease with which pedestrians can reach their desired destinations.
  • Takes into account factors such as the distance between a pedestrian's starting point and destination, the quality of the pedestrian infrastructure along the route, and the presence of barriers such as highways or other physical obstacles.
  • The index is calculated by dividing the number of destinations that can be reached within a certain time or distance by the total number of destinations in the area. For example, if a pedestrian can reach 10 out of 20 destinations within a 10-minute walk, the accessibility index would be 50%.

 

Accessibility index

  • Usually, take into account vehicles.
  • For sustainability, other factors are necessary.

 

Impact assessment for new development

Pedestrian impact assessment

We shape our buildings, but do they then shape us?

Sevtsuk, Andres, Rounaq Basu, and Bahij Chancey. "We shape our buildings, but do they then shape us? A longitudinal analysis of pedestrian flows and development activity in Melbourne." PloS one 16.9 (2021): e0257534.
https://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au

Pedestrian counters

Pedestrian counts

aggregated for peak hours

Land use and employment data

Weather

Datasets used in the model

Reminder!

What are ODs? How many trips from each point? 

Distribute trips between OD pairs

How trips are distributed between routes

We skip this.

Potential origin-destination pairs for pedestrian trips in Melbourne. Gray highlights include the ten O-D pairs for which trips were modeled. Weights describe which attribute was used as origin or destination weight in the analysis.

Selecting PoIs

Step 1.

Trip distribution

Step 2.

Distance decay

Because the origin is 800 meters from the destination, the distance decay parameter β = 0.002 reduces the number of trips allocated to the destination from 100 to only 20.2 (\(100 / e^{0.002 \times 800}= 20.2\)).

20.2 trips

route assignment

Step 4.

All paths up to x% (here 15%) longer than shortest path are considered.

Depending on selected parameters, the likelihood of route choice is calculated. 

Calibration with counts

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257534.s002
  • Correlations between flow types and observed pedestrian counts are computed. 
  • Several machine learning methods are used to fit model parameters combined with weather data and the day of the week. 

real-time Pedestrian flow estimation in Tartu

Khoshkhah, K.,Pourmoradnasseri M., and Hadachi A. "A real-time model for pedestrian flow estimation in urban areas based on IoT sensors." 2022 IEEE 25th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC). IEEE, 2022.

Validation with synthetic data.

  1. Distance: Pedestrians tend to choose the shortest possible route between two points.

  2. Safety: Pedestrians are more likely to choose routes that are perceived as safer, such as well-lit and well-maintained sidewalks, and areas with low crime rates.

  3. Comfort: Pedestrians are more likely to choose routes that are comfortable to walk on, such as those with smooth surfaces and minimal inclines.

  4. Landmarks: Pedestrians may choose routes that pass by important landmarks, such as shops, restaurants, or cultural attractions.

  5. Traffic: Pedestrians may choose routes that avoid heavy traffic, noisy areas, or areas with high levels of air pollution.

  6. Personal preferences: Pedestrians may have personal preferences for certain routes, based on past experiences, familiarity, or the desire to avoid certain areas or types of people.

  7. Time of day: Pedestrians may choose different routes depending on the time of day, such as avoiding crowded areas during rush hour or choosing well-lit routes at night.

Factors that can influence pedestrian route choice

Challenges in increasing the share of active mobility

  1. Infrastructure: Bike lanes, sidewalks, and pedestrian crossings are necessary to support active mobility. 

  2. Safety: Pedestrians and cyclists are vulnerable to accidents and injuries from motor vehicles.

  3. Weather: Extreme weather, such as rain, snow, or extreme heat, can make active mobility uncomfortable or even dangerous.

  4. Distance: For longer distances, it may not be feasible or time-efficient.

  5. Culture: Some cultures value car ownership and driving, which can make it difficult to promote and encourage active mobility.

  6. Equity: Active mobility can be less accessible for people with disabilities or mobility impairments.