Mobility Modelling
Lecture 9 - Future Trends in Mobility
10 April 2023
Mozhgan Pourmoradnasseri, Ph.D.
What drives changes in the mobility landscape?
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Technological innovations: electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and transportation apps.
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Economic factors: fuel prices, public transportation fares, and job opportunities.
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Government policies and regulations: fuel efficiency standards, emissions regulations, and funding for public transportation.
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Demographic changes: such as an aging population or an influx of young professionals.
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Environmental concerns: air pollution, climate change.
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Cultural and social changes: changes in cultural and social norms such as the rise of car-sharing and ride-sharing services.
Autonomous Vehicles
where We are
- Currently, most vehicles on the road are at Level 0 or Level 1, with a growing number of vehicles at Level 2.
- Some companies are testing vehicles at Level 3 or higher.
- It's likely that more advanced self-driving systems will become available in the coming years.
- Note that the exact level of autonomy for a given vehicle may vary depending on its specific capabilities and limitations.
Potentials of AVs
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Improved safety: reducing accidents caused by human error, such as drunk driving, distracted driving, and speeding.
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Increased efficiency: optimizing driving routes, reducing congestion and improving traffic flow, which can result in faster and more efficient transportation.
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Reduced carbon emissions: being designed to be more fuel-efficient and reduce emissions, contributing to a more sustainable transportation system.
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Increased accessibility: improving transportation access for people who are unable to drive due to age, disability, or other reasons.
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Greater convenience: allowing passengers to use their travel time more productively or enjoyably, since they don't need to focus on driving.
Challenges in development and integration of AVs
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Technical limitations: Self-driving cars require advanced sensors, software, and computing power, which are still developing and improving. Additionally, they may face difficulties in certain weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, or in complex urban environments.
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Regulatory limitations: Autonomous vehicles must comply with a complex and evolving regulatory landscape that varies by region and country. This includes regulations around safety, privacy, liability, and cybersecurity.
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Public acceptance: Some people may be hesitant to trust self-driving cars, especially given concerns about safety and privacy. There may also be social and ethical questions about the impact of autonomous vehicles on jobs, urban planning, and society as a whole.
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Infrastructure challenges: The deployment of autonomous vehicles may require significant infrastructure upgrades, including new sensors, road markings, and communication systems. This can be costly and time-consuming to implement.
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Cybersecurity risks: Self-driving cars may be vulnerable to hacking or cyber attacks, which could potentially compromise the safety and privacy of passengers.
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Legal challenges: Liability and insurance issues are complex and may vary by region and country, and may need to be resolved before widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles can occur.
- Some experts predict that fully autonomous vehicles could become available for public use in the next few years, while others believe that it could take decades. The timeline will depend on a range of factors, including technological advancements, regulatory changes, public acceptance, and infrastructure upgrades.
- Even after fully autonomous vehicles become available, it will likely take time for them to become widely adopted and integrated into society. Additionally, the transition to autonomous vehicles could have significant impacts on employment, urban planning, and other aspects of society, which may also influence the timeline for adoption.
When?
Autonomous Public transportation
autonomous Last-mile delivery
“Last-mile delivery is the most expensive and inefficient part of the whole supply chain.” Jeff Zhang, Alibaba Cloud Intelligence
Brunner, G., Szebedy, B., Tanner, S., & Wattenhofer, R. (2019, June). The urban last mile problem: Autonomous drone delivery to your balcony. In 2019 international conference on unmanned aircraft systems (icuas) (pp. 1005-1012). IEEE.Autonomous Drone Delivery to Your Balcony
Pros and cons of autonomous parcel delivery?
shared urban mobility services
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Bike-sharing: A system where bicycles are made available for shared use to individuals on a short-term basis.
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Car-sharing: A system where individuals can access vehicles for short-term use on a pay-per-use basis.
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Ride-sharing: A system where individuals share a ride in a car or other vehicle, typically using a mobile app to coordinate pick-up and drop-off locations.
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Scooter-sharing: A system where electric scooters are made available for shared use on a short-term basis.
impacts of shared mobility on Cities
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Reducing traffic congestion
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Improving air quality
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Increasing accessibility
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Creating new business opportunities
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Reducing the need for parking
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Changing urban form
In reality, the impact of shared mobility services can vary depending on a range of factors, including the characteristics of the city or region in which the services are being used, the level of adoption of the services, and the behavior of users.
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Challenges of micromobility services
E-scooters have already incited considerable public debate.
Tuncer, S., & Brown, B. (2020, April). E-scooters on the ground: Lessons for redesigning urban micro-mobility. In Proceedings of the 2020 CHI conference on human factors in computing systems (pp. 1-14).Smart Parking
- Using technology to improve the efficiency of parking spaces in urban or suburban areas.
- It involves the deployment of sensors, cameras, and other monitoring systems to collect data on the occupancy of parking spots and provide real-time information to drivers about available spots.
Al-Turjman, F., & Malekloo, A. (2019). Smart parking in IoT-enabled cities: A survey. Sustainable Cities and Society, 49, 101608.Smart Parking
Smart Parking
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
A type of service that, through a joint digital channel, enables users to plan, book, and pay for multiple types of mobility services (Wikipedia).
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
Pangbourne, K., Mladenović, M. N., Stead, D., & Milakis, D. (2020). Questioning mobility as a service: Unanticipated implications for society and governance. Transportation research part A: policy and practice, 131, 35-49.Promises the consumers to get around cost-effective, sustainable, and hassle-free.
- Need to create a seamless and integrated user experience across different modes of transportation.
- Requires cooperation and coordination between a wide range of stakeholders, including public transit agencies, private transportation providers, and technology companies.
- Need to address regulatory and legal issues, particularly around liability and data privacy. MaaS providers must navigate a complex landscape of regulations and standards in order to operate legally and ensure the safety and security of their users.
- Financial sustainability, MaaS providers must find a way to balance the costs of operating and maintaining their platforms with the need to provide affordable and accessible services to consumers.
Future mobility Fuel (hydrogen)
NASA began using liquid hydrogen in the 1950s as a rocket fuel.
Hydrogen fuel cells work by converting the chemical energy of hydrogen into electricity. Hydrogen enters the fuel cell and comes into contact with a catalyst. This interaction splits the hydrogen molecule into protons and electrons. The protons pass through a membrane, while the electrons create an electric current in an external circuit. As the protons combine with oxygen from the air, they form water, making the process very clean. The energy produced can then be used to power an electric motor.
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Steam methane reforming: The most common method for producing hydrogen, where natural gas is reacted with steam to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide is then captured and stored, which reduces the carbon footprint of the process.
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Electrolysis: Using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Electricity can come from renewable sources.
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Coal gasification: Coal is converted into a gas that contains hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and other gases. The hydrogen is then separated and purified.
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Biomass gasification: Heating biomass (such as agricultural waste, wood chips, or municipal solid waste) to produce a gas that contains hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and other gases. The hydrogen is then separated and purified.
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Photobiological and photoelectrochemical processes: Using photosynthetic organisms or semiconductors to produce hydrogen from sunlight and water.
How is hydrogen produced?
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Cost: The cost of producing, storing, and transporting hydrogen is still high compared to other fuels, making it less economically viable.
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Infrastructure: The infrastructure for hydrogen fueling stations is limited.
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Safety: Hydrogen is a highly flammable gas, which can be dangerous in case of an accident.
Challenges of Hydrogen as Fuel
4. Efficiency: Hydrogen fuel cells are less efficient than batteries in converting energy into motion, which affects the range of the vehicle.
5. Environmental Impact: While hydrogen fuel cells emit only water vapor as their waste product, the process of producing hydrogen from natural gas or other sources can still have a significant environmental impact, particularly if the energy used for production comes from fossil fuels.
Dash, S. K., Chakraborty, S., Roccotelli, M., & Sahu, U. K. (2022). Hydrogen Fuel for Future Mobility: Challenges and Future Aspects. Sustainability, 14(14), 8285.
Governments
Private companies
Public transit agencies
Non-governmental organizations
Citizens and communities
Research and education agancies
The future of urban mobility will depend on collaboration and coordination among different players.