Tipping points: the russian roulette of climate change

Nele Vandersickel

Lineair versus non-lineair

Two options:

I will give you 1 euro per day for the next 30 days.
I will give you a 0.001 cent on the first day, 0.002 cents on the second day, 0.004 cents on the third day, 0.008 cents on the fourth day, and keep doubling every day for a total of 30 days.

Two options:

I will give you 1 euro per day for the next 30 days = 30 euro
I will give you a 0.001 cent on the first day, 0.002 cents on the second day, 0.004 cents on the third day, 0.008 cents on the fourth day, and keep doubling every day for a total of 30 days = 10.000 euro

If a pond has a lily pad that doubles in size daily and takes 30 days to cover the pond, When will half of the pond be covered?

If a pond has a lily pad that doubles in size daily and takes 30 days to cover the pond, When will half of the pond be covered?

Day 29

If you fold a piece of paper, how many times do you need to fold it to get to the moon?

If you fold a piece of paper, how many times do you need to fold it to get to the moon?

42 times!

Human brain: tends to think lineair

"Illusion of linearity"

Incremental change, little-by-little will get you to your destination

Exponential change