A New Metric for an Old Question:
Intergenerational Transmission and Irish-Language Shift, 1851-1891
Nicholas Wolf
New York University
Nineteenth-century census limitations:
- Undercounts, especially 1851-71 (footnoted language question)
- Destruction of original forms during WWI, thus reliant on published tables
- Changing spatial and age granularity in published tables, limited selection of variables (gender, age, location, bi/monolingualism)
Census limitations solutions (Adams, FitzGerald):
- Treat count as minimum, elevate 1881 census
- Harmonize spatial discrepancies by migrating baronial presentations of data (age/education) to the Poor Law Union/Registrar/Dispensary District system (age/health)
but...
- No significant gender-based analysis to date despite presence of this variable
- Abandon longitudinal strengths of the census data
Age Distributions by Language, County Clare, 1851
(Clare = 37.4% returned overall as Irish speakers)
Age Distributions by Language, County Kerry, 1851
(Kerry = 38.0% returned overall as Irish speakers)
Age Distributions by Language, County Kerry, 1851
(Kerry = 38.0% returned overall as Irish speakers)
| Province | 1851 | 1871 | 1891 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | .35 (.49) | .20 (.46) | .15 (.46) |
| Ulster | .34 (.48) | .30 (.45) | .27 (.43) |
| Connacht | .41 (.51) | .30 (.50) | .24 (.49) |
| Leinster | .10 (.46) | .03 (.41) | .05 (.41) |
Proportion of Irish-Speaking Population Under 20, 1851-1891
Proportion of Irish Speakers Under 20 (Proportion of Total Population Under 20)
Source: L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Age, 1821–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3574-1; L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Language, 1851–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3573-1.
| Province | 1851 | 1871 | 1891 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | .35 (.49) | .20 (.46) | .15 (.46) |
| Ulster | .34 (.48) | .30 (.45) | .27 (.43) |
| Connacht | .41 (.51) | .30 (.50) | .24 (.49) |
| Leinster | .10 (.46) | .03 (.41) | .05 (.41) |
|
Wales, 1901 *(Under 25) |
|||
| Cardiganshire | .72 (.72) | ||
| Glamorgan | .72 (.76) | ||
| Radnorshire | .61 (.73) |
Proportion of Irish-Speaking Population Under 20, 1851-1891
Proportion of Irish Speakers Under 20 (Proportion of Total Population Under 20)
Source: Dot Jones, Statistical Evidence Relating to the Welsh Language, 1891-1911 (1998)
| Province | 1851 | 1871 | 1891 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | .14 | .26 | .31 |
| Ulster | .14 | .15 | .16 |
| Connacht | .10 | .20 | .25 |
| Leinster | .36 | .38 | .36 |
Proportion of Irish-Speaking Population Under 20, 1851-1891
Difference between Overall Proportion and Irish-Speaking Proportion
Source: L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Age, 1821–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3574-1; L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Language, 1851–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3573-1.
| Province | 1851 | 1871 | 1891 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | .14 | .26 | .31 |
| Ulster | .14 | .15 | .16 |
| Connacht | .10 | .20 | .25 |
| Leinster | .36 | .38 | .36 |
Proportion of Irish-Speaking Population Under 20, 1851-1891
Difference between Overall Proportion and Irish-Speaking Proportion
Source: L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Age, 1821–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3574-1; L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Language, 1851–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3573-1.
To put it in terms of numbers of individuals...
- Munster was missing 100,000 Irish-speaking youths under age 20 in 1871 it needed to sustain the proportion of young Irish speakers it had in 1851 (on a all-language population under 20 of 640,000; 15.6%)
- Connacht was missing 60,000 in 1871 to match its 1851 proportion (out of 410,000; 14.6%)
- Ulster was missing 6,000 (out of 832,000; 0.72%)
Rate of Change of Irish Speakers' Underrepresentation
in Under-20 Cohorts, 1851 to 1871
Rate of Change of Irish Speakers' Underrepresentation
in Under-20 Cohorts, 1871 to 1891
Male-Female Divergence in Under-Age-20 Cohorts
Difference between Male and Female Underrepresentation, Munster Baronies, 1851, 1871, 1891
Male-Female Divergence in Under-Age-20 Cohorts
Difference between Male and Female Underrepresentation, Munster Baronies, 1851, 1871, 1891
Outliers in the gender gap in rate of under-age-20 depletion:
Males
1871 Limerick Limerick City
1891 Waterford Glenahiry
1851 Tipperary Ikerrin
1891 Cork Kerrycurrihy
1851 Tipperary Ormond Lower
1871 Waterford Kilculliheen
1851 Waterford Waterford City
1851 Limerick Kilmallock
1871 Tipperary Ikerrin
Outliers in the gender gap in rate of under-age-20 depletion:
Females
1891 Tipperary Ormond Lower
1891 Waterford Kilculliheen
1891 Cork Bear
1871 Cork Kinsale
| Decade | Percent |
|---|---|
| 1830-39 | 20.9% |
| 1840-49 | 25.1% |
| 1850-59 | 27.1% |
| 1860-69 | 24.7% |
| 1870-79 | 21.8% |
| 1880-89 | 21.3% |
| 1890-99 | 19.6% |
| 1900-10 | 16.5% |
Proportion Claiming Irish as Mother Tongue in U.S. among Irish Born, 1910, by Decade of Immigration
Source: Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Sophia Foster, Ronald Goeken, Jose Pacas, Megan Schouweiler, and Matthew Sobek. IPUMS USA: Version 11.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2021. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V11.0
| Decade | Percent |
|---|---|
| 1830-39 | 20.9% |
| 1840-49 | 25.1% |
| 1850-59 | 27.1% |
| 1860-69 | 24.7% |
| 1870-79 | 21.8% |
| 1880-89 | 21.3% |
| 1890-99 | 19.6% |
| 1900-10 | 16.5% |
Proportion Claiming Irish as Mother Tongue in U.S. among Irish Born, 1910, by Decade of Immigration
Source: Steven Ruggles, Sarah Flood, Sophia Foster, Ronald Goeken, Jose Pacas, Megan Schouweiler, and Matthew Sobek. IPUMS USA: Version 11.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2021. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V11.0
| Province | 1851 | 1871 | 1891 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munster | .14 (.44) | .26 (.28) | .31 (.26) |
| Ulster | .14 (.07) | .15 (.05) | .16 (.05) |
| Connacht | .10 (.51) | .20 (.40) | .25 (.41) |
| Leinster | .36 (.04) | .38 (.01) | .36 (.01) |
Proportion of Irish-Speaking Population Under 20, 1851-1891
Difference between Overall Proportion and Irish-Speaking Proportion
Source: L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Age, 1821–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), https://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3574-1; L. A. Clarkson, et al., Database of Irish Historical Statistics: Language, 1851–1911 (Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive, 1997), http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-3573-1.