Modeling the dynamics of belief systems

Complex Systems Seminar

1 March 2015

Sebastian Hörl

Why?

Ideology

How does "ideology" work?

Can one predict ideological change?

If so, can we control it?

Ideology

Established Theories

Determined by individual

uncertainty avoidance
moral foundations
personality psychology

Bottom-Up

Ideology

Established Theories

Determined by society

social integration
steered by politics
exerting power

Top-Down

Ideology

As a Complex System

Society

Individual

Changing individual

belief systems

Shaping common

beliefs systems

Ideology

As a Complex System

Concept 1

Cognitive Affective Mapping

Tea Party CAM

NGO on Climate Change

Water Efficiency

Technology-driven group

Government-driven group

http://uw-empathica.appspot.com/

Concept 2

Emotional Coherence

Belief

Emotion

Social Dynamics

Validation of own representation of the world with others.

Sticking to similar belief systems.

Creating a "shared reality".

= "hot" & "cold" communication

So does it work?

Comfort-oriented individualists

Cost-oriented pragmatics

Innovation-oriented progressives

Eco-oriented opinion leaders

Innovation Diffusion

Who will first adapt to electronic cars?

Questions?

A Complex Systems Approach to the Study of Ideology: Cognitive-Affective Structures and the Dynamics of Belief Systems

Thomas Homer-Dixona , Jonathan Leader Maynard , Matto Mildenberger, Manjana Milkoreit, Steven J. Mock, Stephen Quilley, Tobias Schröder, Paul Thagard

Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach

Ingo Wolf, Tobias Schroeder, Jochen Neumann, Gerhard de Haan

What’s the Mind Got To Do With It? A Cognitive Approach to Global Climate Governance

Manjana Milkoreit

Water cognition and cognitive affective mapping: identifying priority clusters within a Canadian water efficiency community

Sahra Wolfe