Zissis Poulos
Credit to Andreas Park
A tumultuous 12 months
The NFT Boom
The NFT Boom & Crash
The Terra Implosion
UST Stablecoin
LUNA (cryptocurrency of the TERRA network)
A timeline
May 7: selling pressure on UST from Curve withdrawals
May 12: LUNA and UST at $0.01
June 27: Three Arrows Capital ordered to liquidate
June 12: Celsius Network suspends withdrawals
July 13: Celsius files for Chapter 11
July 6: Voyager Digital files for Chapter 11
July 4: Vault suspends withdrawals
Three Arrows Capital lost >60% of value and faces numerous margin calls that they did not react to
The Aftermath:
is crypto dead or dying?
Cryptomarket Crash
bitcoin
ETH
-70%
-60%
Consequences of the Crash?
Some Questions
Are blockchains no longer used?
transactions on Ethereum flat
Is crypto-investing dead?
crypto market follows traditional market
Is crypto trading dead?
trading volume on exchanges lower but steady
Are markets dead?
no meaningful net outflows from exchanges
Other consequences?
Challenges
Source: Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index https://cbeci.org/
Usage
| Network | DApps | Dollarvolume |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | 3,500 | $40-50B |
| Solana | 100 | $2.5B |
| Binance Smart Chain | 250 | $3B |
| Avalanche | 400 | <$.5B |
| EOS | 300 | <$100M |
| Algorand | 12 | <$20M |
Ethereum Challenge 1: Environment
| transactions per second | T per 12 hours (business day) | |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 7 | 302,400 |
| Ethereum | 30 | 1,296,000 |
| Algorand | 2000 | 86,400,000 |
| Conflux | 4000 | 172,800,000 |
| Athereum | 5000 | 216,000,000 |
| Payments Canada ACSS | 648 | 28,000,000 |
| US retail | 7639 | 330,000,000 |
| Canada number of equity trades | 46 | 2,000,000 |
| Orders on Canadian equity markets | 3588 | 155,000,000 |
Tweaks: lighting network (BTC) or side chains, SegWit, blocksize possible, but there are limits
microtransactions, IoT, and other smart contract use cases place very high demands
Ethereum Challenge 2: Throughput
Ethereum Challenge 2: Throughput
Source: Etherscan w re-scaling
Ethereum Challenge 3: State Size
Source: Ycharts
Major Ethereum Tech Upgrade: The Merge
scheduled date: September 13
Hacks, Thefts, and Exploits
Common Reasons: hacks, faulty code, tricking a protocol
5-minute version:
What is a blockchain?
blockchain=
an infrastructure for digital resource transfers
5-minute version:
What is Decentralized Finance?
decentralized finance =
provision of financial services without the necessary involvement of a traditional financial intermediary based on blockchain technology
in practice: new financial infrastructure that will be a common resource
payments
stocks, bonds, and options
swaps, CDS, MBS, CDOs
insurance contracts
\(\vdots\)
Source: Harvey, Ramachandran, and Santoro (2020)
FinTech
DeFi
innovation vs. salesmanship
main focus
disclaimer: an incomplete list
Bitcoin,
stablecoins, etc.
"higher layer"
lending
payments processing
financial
advice
trading
services
funding
services
prop trading to manage risks
too early, but projects are underway
as it turns out, these items are often directly related
interoperability
inefficiency
centralized control
limited access
opacity
interchange (=VISA) fees, settlement times, microtransactions, physical infrastructure
between-institution or transfers, reconciliation process, international remittances, various securities custody and trading systems
information for users, health of deposit taker, what-happens-behind-the-scenes, counterparty risk
local monopolies/switching costs, central banking, deposit concentration, control vs. competition
1.7B unbanked in the world, 24M in the US, many services or products not available based on location etc, lack of SME support, inability to collateralize
Source: Wendy Rotenberg's Payments lecture
e-transfer
Wire
deposit based retail
CDS
Securities Trading
derivatives
swaps
property registry
interoperability
inefficiency
centralized control
limited access
opacity
siloed legacy system
is interoperable by design
reduces frictions and separates service from "commodity"
decentralized control and common operation
fewer barriers\(\to\) broad access
is/can be highly transparent
common infrastructure system
Future of Crypto: Regulators
Most relevant case for FIs: Tornado Cash
Need for Regulation
Future of Crypto: Tech
Monolithic Blockchains
Consensus
Data Availability
Data Availability
Execution
Settlement
Modular Blockchains
Consensus
Data Availability
Execution
Settlement
Merge
Thank You!