Roll with the Polls
Maarten Lambrechts
Malofiej 24 | Pamplona
@maartenzam
?
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Explorable Explanations
The Poll Trap
Media order survey
Survey company conducts
Media report
Users click, read, watch
Media order new survey
...
Everybody
Statisticians
?
No
\text{CI} = \bar X \pm 1.96 \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}
CI=X¯±1.96√nσ
f(x) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} e^{ -\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} }
f(x)=√2πσ21e−2σ2(x−μ)2
Pr(\mathrm{Reject}\; H|H) = Pr(p \leq \alpha) = \alpha
Pr(RejectH∣H)=Pr(p≤α)=α
Introducing
Rock 'n Poll
So
Visualize uncertainty when there is uncertainty
Fight
xenographphobia
Fine print
Slide 1 | Pencil picture: emagic
Slide 8 | Alternatives to bar charts: UW Graphics
Slide 11 | Star Wars intervals: Maarten Lambrechts
Slide 11 | Fan chart: Congressional Budget Office
Slide 11 | Uncertainty visualizations: UW IDL
Slide 12 | Horizon Graphs: Flowing Data
Slide 12 | Radial Horizon Graphs: Tennis Visuals
Slide 12 | Spotlight: Kristina Szűcs
Slide 12 | Peyton Manning: New York Times
Slide 12 | Strip Plot: Maarten Lambrechts