Energy consumption
Impact of CO2 emissions on usage of alternative energy
Overview
- More people more consumption
- More consumption of energy more CO2 emission
- More CO2 emission
RISING POPULATIONLatin America
1971 176.19
1975 203.67 Millions
1988 303.91 Millions
2000 403.74 Millions
2009 468.71 Millions
Energy consumption
1971 497.27 KWh per capita
1980 881.37 KWh per capita
Over 3X 1971
1995 1336.82 KWh per capita
2009 1871.50
CO2 Emissions
1971 1.85
ton per capita
1980 2.45
tons per capita
1990 2.30 tons per capita
2009 2.77 tons per capita
More people however, the levels raised by 0.92
about 50%
So what's changed?
More efficient equipment
Technology evolution
Alternative and Nuclear Energy:
1971 3.17 % of total energy use
3x more than 19712009 10.16 % of total energy use
Quick stats
Consumption increased 3x since 1971
Population raised 3x since 1971
Alternative and Nuclear energy use increased 3x since 1971
CO2 emissions increased 50%
So, what?
Can we predict the usage of alternate energy?
Yes.
Well, kind of.....
Our research
1. Data
World Bank
2. Period
1971 through 2009
3. Method of Analysis
Multiple Regression, Durbin-Watson Statistic
Population
Population
CO2 Emissions and Population
Population
Looks too good
Population quick stats
Energy Consumption and population
87.6% of data is described by the model
more we consume more CO2
indeed
82.9% is described by the linear regression between population and CO2 emission
Mean and median is really close (2.38 and 2.37)
IRQ (0.345)
Energy consumption
Looks pretty good. are there any outliers?
Energy consumption
Nope, no outliers
Energy consumption
Standard Deviation is 0.21
Energy consumption quick stats
Median and mean are close (1190 and 1168.6)
Standard deviation 406.09
Range 1392.7
IRQ
662.6
CO2 Emission
Normal distribution
CO2 Emission
CO2 emission vs population
CO2 Emission quick stats
Median 2.37
Mean 2.37
Standard Deviation
0.241
IRQ
0.345
ALternative energy
Alternative Energy
Outliers?
alternative energy Quick stats
Mean and Median are 7.817 and 8.98
Standard Deviation and IRQ are 2.37 and 4.463
Range 7.091
Correlation
|
Correlation |
Alternative |
CO2 Emissions |
Energy Consumption |
Population Growth |
|
Alternative |
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
CO2 Emissions |
0.803 |
1.00 |
|
|
|
Energy Consumption |
0.931 |
0.930 |
1.00 |
|
|
Population Growth |
0.936 |
0.911 |
0.996 |
1.00 |
Predictions
We would like to know whether CO2 has effect on usage of Alternative Energy
H0 hypothesis - Alternative Energy does not increase with CO2 emission increase.
Predictions
P-Values:
CO2 Emission 0.015
Energy Consumption 0.187
Population 0.657
F- Score is 100.46 with p-value 0.000
Coefficient of determination
R2
88.7%
Predictions
STANDARD ERROR
0.797676
Residuals
Overall formula
Alt. Usg.= 8.24 - 4.25 * CO2 Emission + 0.00600 * Energy Consumption + 0.0080 * Population
Durbin-Watson Statistics
our value
D=0.170674
it should be
1.33< D < 1.66
Auto correlation
Why is it important?
What does it mean for our data set?
What do we need to do?
What is that mean?
CO2 Emissions
might not directly caused by increase of
Alternative Energy Usage ,
but as consequence of policies and human common sense