induction and falsificationism
Introducing things...
We are group two!
Leave a penny, take a penny.
Turn! Turn! Turn!
Logic » Deduction » Induction [»] Falsification
Deductive Reasoning
"Logic is concerned with the deduction of statements from other, given, statements."
"...reasoning from the general to the particular, or from cause to effect."
(p. 41,42)
all men are mortal (premise)
aristotle is a man (premise)
aristotle is mortal (conclusion)
(p.42)
valid ≠ sound
All toasters are items made of gold.
All items made of gold are time-travel devices.
Therefore, all toasters are time-travel devices.
validity
Many books on Philosophy are boring.
This is a book on Philosophy.
This book is boring.
(p.42)
Inductive Reasoning
"...is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy."
- C.D. Broad
Experience v. logic
Induction is justified from experience.
(p. 51)
pennies!!!
You have never flipped a coin.
You have never seen a penny.
You don't know what probability is.
The RULES:
a) large collection of observations
b) observations are repeatable
c) observations do not conflict with the derived law
(p.46-49)
To infinity, and beyond!
(p. 54)
(p. 45, 57)
induction or deduction?
(a super-fun game)
Example 1
All dogs are mammals.
All mammals have kidneys.
Therefore, all dogs have kidneys.
(deduction)
example 2
Tom plays soccer.
In each of the five games Tom has played this season, he has scored a goal.
Tom will score a goal in the sixth game.
(induction)
example 3
Doug and Patty have eight children, and all of them are athletic boys.
Patty is expecting again, and she knows it will be an athletic boy.
The baby has been born. Doug and Patty now have nine athletic boys.
(induction first, then deduction)
Example 4
George and Karen are also expecting and the doctor told them it's not a girl.
All boys like blue.
George and Karen painted the baby's room blue.
(deduction)
Example 5
Every Sunday Jake visits his grandfather.
Whenever Jake visits, his grandfather gives him an Oreo.
Therefore, Jake will receive an Oreo every Sunday.
(probably induction - what do you think?)
Falsification
A good theory must:
a) make definite claims about the world
b) be highly falsifiable
(p.65)
What does it even mean?
Falsificationism puts forward predictions that can be TESTED.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
(p. 63)
Science is guided by
Trial and Error
(p.67)
Falsifiable ?
(an equally exciting game)
example 1
No man has ever been over 9 feet tall.
(falsifiable)
example 2
Somewhere in the University, there is a Leprechaun who likes to crab walk and to cook chili.
(not falsifiable)
example 3
Every Border Collie runs faster than every Boston Terrier.
(falsifiable)
Example 4
The students that were present at the University of Lethbridge when it first opened could, on average, drink a lot more individually than the students that study here now.
(not falsifiable)
Example 5
You need at least 367 people in the same room to guarantee that at least 2 of them share a birthday.
(technically falsifiable, although the math would suggest otherwise)
Prove me wrong
Rejected!
(p.66)
progress!
I can therefore gladly admit that falsificationists like myself much prefer an attempt to solve an interesting problem by a bold conjecture, even (and especially) if it soon turns out to be false, to any recital of a sequence of irrelevant truisms. We prefer this because we believe that this is the way in which we can learn from our mistakes; and that in finding that our conjecture was false we shall have learnt much about the truth, and shall have got nearer to the truth.
(p.66-67)
clarity & precision = good
Rhetoric = Bad
(p.68)
The progress of science
(p.69)
So lets talk about it.
Bibliography
Chalmers, A.F. (1999). What is this thing called Science? (3rd ed.). Queensland: University of Queensland Press.
Jonathan Bain. (2007). Lectures: 08. Hume’s Problem of Induction.
Retrieved from Is.poly.edu/~jbain/philsci/philscilectures/08.Induction.pdf
Stephen Jay Gould (2005). Science as Falsification by Karl R. Popper. Retrieved from http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html
TimIrving.com. (2010). Has Popper Solved the Problem of Induction?:The scientific method and the problem of induction. Retrieved from http://www.timirving.com/philosophy/essay-induction.aspx