International Relations of the Middle East

In The News

Erdogan given increased powers after the coup attempt

Early February 2017, Turkey purge 330 academics. 7,316 academics have lost their Jobs since the Turkish coup attempt.

1500 deans of universities-fired.

3000 judges suspended

120 journalist jailed

150 news stations closed

October 2016, 70000 people had been arrested

Authoritarianism

The control of government and political society by an individual or cadre of individuals. The press, open and fair elections, demonstrations severely curtailed.

In the Middle East Authoritarian regimes utilize the law as a method of suspending legal rights

Emergency Law

Before the Arab spring Emergency laws were continuously active for Egypt and Syria

The suspension of civil rights, justification for judicial proceedings that do not follow constitution protocol, censorship of the press and cultural output. Usually enacted due to a perceived 'threat'

The impact of Authoritarian regimes on international relations

Authoritarian rulers are primary decision makers but...
- Authoritarian rulers must also walk a fine line in pursuing their policy objectives
  - popular sentiments
  - personal desires
  - transnational ties
Rulers are also influenced by the factors of state formation
- what ideology was used in the founding of the state?

What do we get with authoritarianism?

A council for young women without women

Housing that does not address housing needs

Saad Ibrahim

sentenced to 7 years in prison

Hamza Ali Khateeb killed by Syrian Security forces

grew up poor in the Alawite (Shi'a)

Member of the Ba'ath party

Joins the military as a method toward social advancement.

1963 engages in coup plot with other military officers, establishes a Ba'ath government

Gains full power over the country in 1970

Hafez al- Assad (1930-2000)

However, Alawites dispportionately in control over government
Government utilizes law and institutions to centralize political power.
Sectarianism a threat to Assad's power
- government produced a new constitution opening up the presidency to any sect.
- Assad gets a Shi'a cleric to confirm that Alewites are Muslims.

From 1963-2011 Syria under Emergency Law

Life under Al Assad

Ba'ath Party

The Military

Alawite Community

Internal Security Forces

Friends and Family

Rural support

cracked down on Islamic opposition movements
- Eid al-Adha massacre
- 1980, Tadmoor Prison massacre
- 1982, Hama massacre

Routine torture continued under Bashar al-Assad.

Under Al-Assad

Thriving secret police force engages in repression of political opponents.

Authoritarianism in the Middle East

there is no innate incompatibility between Arab countries and democracy.
There is a history of popular demonstration against leaders seen as neglectful.
There is also history of 'silent' change.
The Arab world has also had persistent authoritarian regimes due to the sustained support of outside powers.
- a preference for stability
- concern for Israel
- geopolitical and economic interest
Rentier states don't necessarily need approval of state action from citizens

Democracy

Some beliefs...

1. Real democracy looks the same everywhere.

2. Democracy is the solution of repression and human rights abuses.

3. Democracies are found where elections are present

Democracy promotion in the region

Early 1990s was to supposed to witness a democratic wave
- End of the Cold War
- a partial turn toward neoliberal economic principles
Neoliberalism: An Economic and Political world view
- democracy and free trade will lead to a reduction in conflict
- Emphasis on interdependence

Rulers have used the language and practices of Modernity to combat democratic reforms

Authoritarian Regimes demonstrate remarkable adaptability

Example:

Shah Reza Pahlavi promoting equal rights for women as well as education reform even has he actively repressed all forms of dissent through imprisonment and torture.

Sisi on Democracy

Authoritarian Regimes compliant with neoliberal economic demands...most of the time

Washington Consensus

a list of reforms that have been heavily exported to countries requesting economic loans from global monetary institutions

1. Property Rights

2. Deregulation

3. Tax Reform

4. Competitive exchange rate

5. privatization

6. Liberalization of interest rates

7. fiscal discipline

8. Liberalization of foreign direct Investment

9. trade liberalization

10. Reordering public expenditures

Funding for Authoritarian rulers detaches them from responding to indigenous democratic movements

6.5 Billion in military assistance from U.S. to Egypt between 2011 and 2015 (al-Monitor)

Foreign Economic Aid to the Middle East from the U.S. during 2014: 5.9 bill. (CNN)

Bahrain 2012

The Islands of Sanafir and Tiran, given to Saudi Arabia .

Saudi Arabia has given Sisi 4 billion in aid in 2015.

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran are the largest oil producers within the region.

Rents: Income accrued from the payment for resources that allow governments to pay the cost of state

1. With Rents, states less prone to worry about productivity and efficiency

2. Large rents, make it easier for gov't leaders to ignore calls for more open government

Funding and Oil

On 20 March 2017, a barrel of oil cost $48.22 ( a barrel is 42 gallons)

Factors behind cost:

Currently, the world market is flooded by oil.
- An increase in U.S. production
  - Today, the United States has more recoverable oil than Saudi Arabia
  removal of sanctions for Iran
- more pumping in Iraq
more energy efficient vehicles

Historic trends in the price of oil

July 2008, the price of oil was $147.27

1. Informality

Because government is unsure of its population--where they live, where they work--they are unable to effectively control or tax them

2. Limited Resources

Oil is not an unlimited resource.

3. Persistent economic discontent

The gap between the rich and the poor is growing wider in the region. Along with the diminishment of the middle class, government elites have turned to promoting modern and costly societal transformation that actively excludes middle and working class.