slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{cells counted})/ ( \text{squares counted}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{dilution factor}) / 0.0001 \text{mL}

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{95})/ ( \text{5}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{1000}) / 0.0001 \text{mL}

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{95})/ ( \text{5}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{1000}) / 0.0001 \text{mL} \\ = 4.75B \;\text{cells} / \text{mL}

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{cells counted})/ ( \text{squares counted}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{\color{red}dilution factor}) / 0.0001 \text{mL}

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{cells counted})/ ( \text{squares counted}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{\color{red}dilution factor}) / \color{red}{0.0001} \text{mL}

slides available at bit.ly/pymcon-cell-counting

\text{cells/mL} = (\text{\color{red} cells counted})/ ( \text{squares counted}) \cdot \\\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\; (\text{\color{red}dilution factor}) / \color{red}{0.0001} \text{mL}
import pymc3 as pm

BILLION = 1e9
TOTAL_SQUARES = 25

squares_counted = 5
yeast_counted = 95
yeast_conc = pm.Normal("cells/mL", mu=2 * BILLION, sd=0.4 * BILLION)

yeast_slurry_volume = pm.Normal("initial yeast slurry volume (mL)", 
                                mu=1.0, 
                                sd=0.01)    
shaker1_volume = pm.Normal("shaker1 volume (mL)", 
                           mu=9.0, 
                           sd=0.05)
dilution_shaker1 = (yeast_slurry_volume / 
                    (yeast_slurry_volume + shaker1_volume))


shaker2_volume = pm.Normal("shaker2 volume (mL)", 
                           mu=9.0, 
                           sd=0.05)
shaker1_to_shaker2_volume = pm.Normal("shaker1 to shaker2 (mL)", 
                                      mu=1.0, 
                                      sd=0.01)
dilution_shaker2 = (shaker1_to_shaker2_volume / 
                    (shaker1_to_shaker2_volume + shaker2_volume))


shaker3_volume = pm.Normal("shaker3 volume (mL)", 
                           mu=9.0, 
                           sd=0.05)
shaker2_to_shaker3_volume = pm.Normal("shaker2 to shaker3 (mL)", 
                                      mu=1.0, 
                                      sd=0.01)
dilution_shaker3 = (shaker2_to_shaker3_volume / 
                    (shaker2_to_shaker3_volume + shaker3_volume))

...
dilution_shaker1 = (yeast_slurry_volume / 
                    (yeast_slurry_volume + shaker1_volume))
...

dilution_shaker2 = (shaker1_to_shaker2_volume / 
                    (shaker1_to_shaker2_volume + shaker2_volume))
...

dilution_shaker3 = (shaker2_to_shaker3_volume / 
                    (shaker2_to_shaker3_volume + shaker3_volume))
...

final_dilution_factor = dilution_shaker1 * dilution_shaker2 * dilution_shaker3

volume_of_chamber = pm.Gamma("volume of chamber (mL)", mu=0.0001, sd=0.0001 / 20)
\text{N yeast} = \text{yeast conc} \cdot \text{final dilution factor} \cdot \text{shaker3 volume}
\text{prob removed} = \text{volume of chamber} / \text{ shaker3 volume}
\text{prob removed} << 1
\text{N yeast} >> 0
\text{prob removed} << 1
\text{N yeast} >> 0

Poisson Approximation

...
final_dilution_factor = dilution_shaker1 * dilution_shaker2 * dilution_shaker3

volume_of_chamber = pm.Gamma("volume of chamber (mL)", mu=0.0001, sd=0.0001 / 20)

yeast_visible = pm.Poisson("cells in visible portion", 
                               mu=yeast_conc * final_dilution_factor * volume_of_chamber)
import pymc3 as pm

BILLION = 1e9
TOTAL_SQUARES = 25

squares_counted = 5
yeast_counted = 95

...
yeast_visible = pm.Poisson("cells in visible portion", 
                           mu=yeast_conc * final_dilution_factor * volume_of_chamber)

number_of_counted_cells = pm.Binomial("number of counted cells", 
                                      yeast_visible, squares_counted/TOTAL_SQUARES,
                                      observed=yeast_counted)

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