# for Probabilistic Modeling

### July 2021

• Choose a destination "randomly"

• Your choice of map matters!

• One perspective:
• Transform the "dart distribution" to a distribution on the globe

• Our perspective for today:
• Transform "uniform on the globe" to a measure on a map
• Consider our "dart distribution" using this as a base measure

• Work with measures in terms of relative densities

Find a Normal distribution to approximate p = Beta(1.5, 4)

density(Normal(), x)
logdensity(::Normal{()} , x) = - x^2 / 2
density(Normal(), x)
logdensity(::Normal{()} , x) = - x^2 / 2
basemeasure(::Normal{()}) = (1/sqrt2π) * Lebesgue(ℝ)
density(Normal(), Lebesgue(ℝ), x)

A measure can have multiple parameterizations

Here (μ, logσ) allows use of parameters from ℝ²

q(θ) = Normal(μ=θ[1], logσ=θ[2])
function logdensity(d::Normal{(:μ,:logσ)}, x)
μ, logσ = d.μ, d.logσ
return -logσ - 0.5(exp(-2logσ) * (x - μ) ^ 2)
end

D_\text{KL}(p || q) = \mathbb{E}_p[\log p - \log q]
p = Beta(1.5, 4)

q(θ) = Normal(μ=θ[1], logσ=θ[2])
logdensity(p, q, x)
\underbrace{\hspace{1in}}
julia> using Symbolics; @variables μ logσ x;

julia> using Symbolics; @variables μ logσ x;

julia> ℓ = logdensity(p, q([μ,logσ]), x)
3.2 + logσ + 0.5log(x) + 3log(1 - x) + 0.5exp(-2logσ)*((x - μ)^2)

julia> using Symbolics; @variables μ logσ x;

julia> ℓ = logdensity(p, q([μ,logσ]), x)
3.2 + logσ + 0.5log(x) + 3log(1 - x) + 0.5exp(-2logσ)*((x - μ)^2)

julia> Symbolics.derivative(ℓ,μ)
0.5exp(-2logσ)*(2μ - (2x))

\mu = \mathbb{E}_p[x] \approx 0.27
julia> using Symbolics; @variables μ logσ x;

julia> ℓ = logdensity(p, q([μ,logσ]), x)
3.2 + logσ + 0.5log(x) + 3log(1 - x) + 0.5exp(-2logσ)*((x - μ)^2)

julia> Symbolics.derivative(ℓ,μ)
0.5exp(-2logσ)*(2μ - (2x))

julia> Symbolics.derivative(ℓ,logσ)
1 - (exp(-2logσ)*((x - μ)^2))
\mu = \mathbb{E}_p[x] \approx 0.27
\sigma^2 = \mathbb{V}_p[x] \approx 0.03

Ways of writing Normal(0,2)

-\log {\color{darkorange} \sigma} - \frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{x - \color{blue} \mu}{\color{darkorange} \sigma}\right)^2
Normal(0,2)
Normal(μ=0, σ=2)
Normal(σ=2)
Normal(mean=0, std=2)
Normal(mu=0, sigma=2)
-\frac{1}{2} \left( \log {\color{darkorange} \sigma^2} - \frac{(x - {\color{blue} \mu})^2}{\color{darkorange} \sigma^2} \right)
Normal(μ=0, σ²=4)
Normal(mean=0, var=4)
\frac{1}{2} \left( \log({\color{darkorange} τ}) - {\color{darkorange} τ} (x - {\color{blue} μ})^2 \right)
Normal(μ=0, τ=0.25)
-{\color{darkorange} \log \sigma} - \frac{(x - {\color{blue} μ})^2}{2 e^{2 {\color{darkorange} \log \sigma}}}
Normal(μ=0, logσ=0.69)
\text{Lebesgue}(\mathbb{R})
\text{Beta}(\alpha, \beta)
\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}\text{Lebesgue}(\mathbb{R})
\text{Normal}(\mu, \sigma^2)
\text{Lebesgue}(\mathbb{I})

+

+

d = Beta(2,4) ^ (40,64)

A PowerMeasure produces replicates a given measure over some shape.

### ⋆

Independent and Identically Distributed

d = For(40,64) do i,j
Beta(i,j)
end
For(indices) do j
# maybe more computations
# ...
some_measure(j)
end

For produces independent samples with varying parameters.

mc = Chain(Normal(μ=0.0)) do x Normal(μ=x) end
r = rand(mc)

Define a new chain, take a sample

julia> take(r,100) == take(r,100)
true

This returns a deterministic iterator

julia> logdensity(mc, take(r, 1000))
-517.0515965372

Evaluate on any finite subsequence

julia> using MeasureTheory, Symbolics

julia> @variables μ τ
2-element Vector{Num}:
μ
τ

julia> d = Normal(μ=μ, τ=τ) ^ 1000;

julia> x = randn(1000);

julia> ℓ = logdensity(d, x) |> expand
500.0log(τ) + 3.81μ*τ - (503.81τ) - (500.0τ*(μ^2))
• Types and functions are generic, so symbolic manipulations work out of the box

• Compare
• MeasureTheory.jl
• Distributions.jl
julia> logdensity(Distributions.Normal(μ, 1 / √τ), 2.0)
ERROR: MethodError: no method matching logdensity(::Num, ::Float64)
prior = HalfNormal()

\begin{aligned} \color{#009cfa} \sigma &\color{#009cfa}\sim \text{Normal}_+(0,1) \\ \phantom{\color{#e47045} x_n} &\phantom{\color{#e47045} \sim \text{Normal}(0,\sigma} \end{aligned}
prior = HalfNormal()

d = Normal(σ=2.0) ^ 10
lik = Likelihood(d, x)

\begin{aligned} \color{#009cfa} \sigma &\color{#009cfa}\sim \text{Normal}_+(0,1) \\ \color{#e47045} x_n &\color{#e47045} \sim \text{Normal}(0,\sigma) \end{aligned}
prior = HalfNormal()

d = Normal(σ=2.0) ^ 10
lik = Likelihood(d, x)

post = prior ⊙ lik
\begin{aligned} \color{#009cfa} \sigma &\color{#009cfa}\sim \text{Normal}_+(0,1) \\ \color{#e47045} x_n &\color{#e47045} \sim \text{Normal}(0,\sigma) \end{aligned}
{\color{#3ba64c} P(\sigma | x)} \propto {\color{#009cfa} P(\sigma)} {\color{#e47045} P(x | \sigma)}

Thanks to PlantingSpace for funding for Spring 2021            https://planting.space