Ministering without Work
David Morgen
April 7, 2022
The Work of the Minister
Image: Roberto Prado for Mother Jones
Artificial intelligence is coming whether you like it or not.
We think we're used to the idea of rapid improvements in information technology, but we're actually standing on the precipice of changes that are much larger in scale than what we've seen so far.
1
1950 Trillionth
Just a pile of vaccum tubes.
2
1970 Billionth
Still a joke compared to human brain.
3
1990 Millionth
Still no comparison.
5
2024 Tenth
It's interesting, but still only the processing power of a housecat.
4
2010 Thousandth
Still looks like an insurmountable comparison.
6
2030 One
Computer can emulate the processing power of the human brain.
Suppose that in 1950, the fastest computer has one trillionth the computing capacity of a human brain & suppose that computing capacity increases 1000x every 20 years ...
It's already here
Already replacing retail workers
Self Checkout
High-level image processing work of radiologists
Radiology
〞
Larger than all of human tech revolutions added together, including electricity, the Industrial Revolution, the internet, mobile internet.
Replace 50% of human jobs ... create a huge amount of wealth for mankind ... wipe out poverty
Because AI is pervasive. It is a decision engine that will replace people.
LET THE ROBOTS HAVE THE DAMN JOBS! RIGHT?
As Kai-Fu Lee says, AI can wipe out poverty and free us all from the drudgery of labor so we can all be free to read or write poetry or play video games or whatever we want to do
But ...
Until we figure out how to fairly distribute the fruits of robot labor, it will be an era of mass joblessness and mass poverty.
AND ...
Even if we quickly and fairly figure out how to distribute the benefits of AI to everyone, the cultural change necessary to adjust to mass joblessness is huge!
In other words
Even if we're headed for utopia in the long-run, there will be a lot of suffering and disruption on the way between here and there.
| Hard to define | Collaborative |
| People not experts | Transformative learning |
| Long-term outcomes | Shifts in perspective |
| Changes in attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors | Deal with more resistance |
Adaptive challenges
The Work of the minister
?
What are some of the implications, some of the biggest adaptive challenges you see?