2020 NBA Draft
Big Board 6.0 (Post-Lottery)
Sep 4, 2020
@thecity2
Draft Philosophy*
I rely heavily on stats, but there’s some nuance to that position. I generally use stat rankings strictly as a threshold criterion. In effect, what this means is that players who rank high stats-wise go on my “prospect radar.” It’s these players that I scrutinize a lot more, try to watch more film (“eye test” them) and generally try to project them as NBA players. Among this group of high-ranking players, there are always “false positives” that I'll try to weed out, ie guys with great stats that probably won’t translate to the NBA for one reason or another. For example, lack of athleticism or size can be a deal-breaker on even the seemingly most productive prospects. On the other hand, if a player is just really unproductive or uninteresting (nothing stands out) stats-wise, they usually just aren’t great NBA prospects. And if such a player does get hyped (often because they entered college as a top recruit), I generally try to push back a bit or play the role of skeptic. There are some players like that every year and certainly in this class. On occasion, there are also likely to be “false negatives,” guys that don’t have great stats but still go on to become good or even great NBA players. Pascal Siakam is a good recent example of a guy who didn’t have an amazing statistical profile and yet has become a star. Then again, it’s possible Toronto had a really good stats model! I've done some "meta" Draft analysis, looking back at previous Drafts, and found
that there are generally around 20-25 guys in each class that make a lasting impact in the NBA and roughly half that amount that stay in the league 10+ years. Therefore, I really subscribe to the "tier system" trying to identify these top guys realizing that most guys in any Draft really won't matter in the long run. My "Draft Philosophy" in a nutshell focuses more on trying to identify the stars and difference makers, rather than the "backup point guards" or "rotation bigs" that litter every Draft. I tend to value offensive skill, basketball IQ, and youth, as I believe there is generally more upside to prospects with these attributes. Size and athleticism at every position is always a positive, that is a given, as is the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot; although, the smaller the player, the more important these skills become. I also value players more that will succeed in a variety of team contexts ("synergy"). You can never have too many good shooters or passers or defenders. Some skills like rebounding are overrated from a value standpoint, and I tend to stay away from bigs who derive most of their value from it. Likewise, players who derive most of their value from inefficient mid-range scoring don't appeal to me. Finally, players that bring "unique" or "outlier" skill sets tend to intrigue me because they can potentially contribute unconventional or novel team-building strategies. It's really all about team building!
*Adapted from my discussion here https://theathletic.com/1690276/2020/03/20/obi-toppin-tyrese-halliburton-and-more-talking-2020-nba-draft-with-evan-zamir/
Draft Twitter Sentiment Poll
I ran a bunch of polls on Twitter to gauge sentiment on prospects (the poll for LaMelo Ball is shown in the inset). The chart summarizes the results and orders players by an MVP-like voting system which gives 4 points for the top tier, 3 points for the next tier, and so on. Because Twitter limits polls to 4 options, I couldn't fit all 6 of my tier definitions, but this should be a pretty good approximation of #DraftTwitter sentiment (biased of course by my followers). Total votes in parentheses.
Big Board
*ESPN rank in parentheses next to player
Guards
Wings
Bigs
- Tyrese Haliburton (8)
- Grant Riller (39)
- Tyrell Terry (42)
- Cole Anthony (14)
- Theo Maledon (17)
- Tyrese Maxey (15)
Mock Draft*
*Based on randomized Lottery order
| Pick | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | LaMelo Ball |
| 2 | ATL | Anthony Edwards |
| 3 | GSW | Aleksej Pokusevski |
| 4 | WAS | Deni Avdija |
| 5 | CLE | James Wiseman |
| 6 | MIN | Patrick Williams |
| 7 | DET | Devin Vassell |
| 8 | NYK | Killian Hayes |
| 9 | CHO | Onyeka Okongwu |
| 10 | PHO | Kira Lewis |
| 11 | SAS | Josh Green |
| 12 | SAC | Tyrese Haliburton |
| 13 | NOP | Isaac Okoro |
| 14 | POR | Obi Toppin |
| 15 | ORL | Grant Riller |
| 16 | MIN | Tyrell Terry |
| 17 | BOS | Killian Tillie |
| 18 | DAL | Cole Anthony |
| 19 | MIL | Theo Maledon |
| 20 | BKN | Desmond Bane |
| 21 | DEN | Saddiq Bey |
| 22 | PHI | Tyrese Maxey |
| 23 | MIA | Aaron Nesmith |
| 24 | UTA | Leandro Bolmaro |
| 25 | OKC | Reggie Perry |
| 26 | BOS | Zeke Nnaji |
| 27 | NYK | RJ Hampton |
| 28 | TOR | Jahmi'us Ramsey |
| 29 | LAL | Xavier Tillman |
| 30 | BOS | Jaden McDaniels |
| 31 | DAL | Skylar Mays |
| 32 | CHA | Robert Woodard |
| 33 | MIN | CJ Elleby |
| 34 | PHI | Jalen Harris |
| 35 | SAC | Jalen Smith |
| 36 | PHI | Devon Dotson |
| 37 | WAS | Precious Achiuwa |
| 38 | NYK | Tre Jones |
| 39 | NOP | Cassius Winston |
| 40 | MEM | Nico Mannion |
| 41 | SAS | Tyler Bey |
| 42 | NOP | Malik Fitts |
| 43 | SAC | Vernon Carey |
| 44 | POR | Isaiah Stewart |
| 45 | ORL | Malachi Flynn |
| 46 | BOS | Tres Tinkle |
| 47 | CHI | Jordan Nwora |
| 48 | GSW | Ty-Shon Alexander |
| 49 | PHI | Mason Jones |
| 50 | IND | Cassius Stanley |
| 51 | OKC | Nate Hinton |
| 52 | ATL | Elijah Hughes |
| 53 | SAC | Trevelin Queen |
| 54 | GSW | Lamine Diane |
| 55 | BKN | Udoka Azubuike |
| 56 | CHA | Sam Merrill |
| 57 | LAC | Immanuel Quickley |
| 58 | TOR | Daniel Oturu |
| 59 | PHI | Saben Lee |
| 60 | NOP | Mamadi Diakite |
Tier II
Tier III
Tier IV
Tier V
Tier V
Tier VI
Tier I
MVP/All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team/Supermax
Tier II
Multiple All-Star Appearances/All-NBA/Max
LaMelo Ball
August 22, 2001
Illawara - NBL
Point Guard
6'7" 180 lbs
6'10" ws ~8'6" sr
Combination of size, ball-handling, IQ, and passing ability makes for a point guard prospect with a high ceiling outcome, even if his shooting is never elite.
Anthony Edwards
August 5, 2001
Freshman - Georgia
Guard
6'5" 225 lbs
6'9" ws 8'4" sr
Star potential clearly in the range of outcomes given his combination of physical tools, skill set, and youth. Floor outcome possible if his motor and IQ stagnate.
Aleksej Pokuševski
Dec 26, 2001
Olympiacos - Greek A2
Power Forward/Center
7' 205 lbs
7'3" ws ~9'2.5" sr
Unicorn outcome in play if he can handle the physicality of the NBA game. Barely old enough to qualify for the Draft, a patient far-sighted team could be greatly rewarded for taking a leap of faith.
Tier III
High-End Playoff Starter/Team Core/Fringe or 1 time All-Star
Tier III Wings
Deni Avdija
Jan 3, 2001
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Wing/Forward
6'8.5" 219 lbs
6'9" ws ~8'6" sr
Patrick Williams
August 6, 2001
Freshman - Florida State
Small Forward/Power Forward
6'8" 225 lbs
6'11" ws ~8'10" sr
Devin Vassell
Aug 23, 2000
Sophomore - Florida State
Point Guard/Combo Guard
6'7" 194 lbs
6'9" ws ~8'7" sr
Josh Green
Nov 16, 2000
Freshman - University of Arizona
Wing
6'5.5" 209 lbs
6'10" ws ~8'7" sr
Isaac Okoro
Jan 26, 2001
Freshman - University of Auburn
Guard
6'6" 225 lbs
6'8.5" ws ~8'4.5" sr
Tier III Guards
Killian Hayes
July 27, 2001
Ratiopharm Ulm - Bundesliga (Germany)
Point Guard
6'5" 192 lbs
6'8" ws ~8'5" sr
Kira Lewis
April 6, 2001
Sophomore - University of Alabama
Point Guard
6'3" 165 lbs
6'6.5" ws ~8'3" sr
Tier III Bigs
James Wiseman
Mar 31, 2001
Freshman - University of Memphis
Center
7'1" 235 lbs
7'5" ws ~9'5" sr
Onyeka Okongwu
Dec 11, 2000
Freshman - University of Southern California
Center
6'9" 245 lbs
7'2" ws ~9' sr
Obi Toppin
Mar 4, 1998
Sophomore - Dayton University
Power Forward/Center
6'9" 220 lbs
6'11" ws ~8'10" sr
Tier IV
Fringe Starter/High-end Role Player/6MOY
Tier IV Wings
Desmond Bane
Jun 25, 1998
Senior - TCU
Guard/Wing
6'5" 215 lbs
~6'4" ws ~8'4" sr
Cassius Stanley
Aug 18, 1999
Freshman - Duke University
Wing
6'6" 194 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'4" sr
Saddiq Bey
April 9, 1999
Sophomore - Villanova University
Wing/Forward
6'8" 216 lbs
6'11" ws ~8'9" sr
Aaron Nesmith
Oct 16, 1999
Sophomore - Vanderbilty University
Wing
6'6" 213 lbs
6'10" ws ~8'7" sr
Tier IV Guards
Tyrese Haliburton
Feb 29, 2000
Sophomore - Iowa State
Guard/Wing
6'5" 175 lbs
6'7" ws ~8'5" sr
Grant Riller
Feb 8, 1997
Senior - College of Charleston
Combo Guard
6'3" 190 lbs
6'5" ws ~8'3" sr
Tyrell Terry
Sept 28, 2000
Freshman - Stanford
Point Guard
6'3" 160 lbs
6'2.5" ws ~8" sr
Cole Anthony
May 15, 2000
Freshman - University of North Carolina
Point Guard/Combo Guard
6'3" 190 lbs
6'4.5" ws ~8' sr
Theo Maledon
Jun 12, 2001
ASVEL - EuroLeague
Point Guard
6'5" 174 lbs
~6'9" ws ~8'4.5" sr
Tyrese Maxey
Nov 4, 2000
Freshman - University of Kentucky
Combo Guard
6'3" 198 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'3.5" sr
Tier IV Bigs
Killian Tillie
Mar 5, 1998
Senior - Gonzaga University
Forward/Center
6'9.5" 230 lbs
6'8" ws ~8'9.5" sr
Tier V
Solid Rotation/Journeyman
Tier V Wings
CJ Elleby
June 16, 2000
Sophomore - Washington State
Shooting Guard/Small Forward
6'7" 195 lbs
6'7" ws ~8'5.5" sr
Robert Woodard
Sep 22, 1999
Sophomore - Mississippi State University
Wing/Forward
6'7" 235 lbs
7'1" ws ~8'8" sr
Malik Fitts
July 4, 1997
Senior - Saint Mary's
Wing/Forward
6'8" 230 lbs
6'11.5" ws ~8'8" sr
Tyler Bey
Feb 10, 1998
Junior - University of Colorado
Power Forward
6'7" 220 lbs
7' ws ~8'9" sr
Tier V Guards
Leandro Bolmaro
Sep 11, 2000
FC Barcelona Lassa - ACB/EuroLeague
Guard/Wing
6'7" 200 lbs
~6'9" ws ~8'7" sr
RJ Hampton
Feb 7, 2001
New Zealand - NBL
Guard
6'5" 185 lbs
6'7" ws ~8'3" sr
Jahmi'us Ramsey
June 9, 2001
Freshman - Texas Tech University
Guard
6'4" 195 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'3.5" sr
Skylar Mays
Sep 15, 1997
Senior - LSU
Guard/Wing
6'4" 205 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'4" sr
Jalen Harris
Aug 14, 1998
Junior - Nevada
Guard
6'5" 195 lbs
6'7" ws ~8'4" sr
Devon Dotson
Aug 2, 1999
Sophomore - University of Kansas
Point Guard
6'1" 185 lbs
6'3" ws ~8' sr
Tre Jones
Jan 8, 2000
Sophomore - Duke University
Point Guard
6'3" 185 lbs
6'4" ws ~8' sr
Cassius Winston
Feb 28, 1998
Senior - Michigan St.
Point Guard
6'1" 185 lbs
6'5" ws ~8'0.5" sr
Nico Mannion
Mar 14, 2001
Freshman - University of Arizona
Point Guard
6'3" 190 lbs
6'2" ws ~7'10" sr
Tier V Bigs
Reggie Perry
Mar 21, 2000
Sophomore - Mississippi State
Power Forward/Center
6'9" 250 lbs
7'0.5" ws ~8'10" sr
Zeke Nnaji
Jan 9, 2001
Freshman - University of Arizona
Center
6'11" 240 lbs
7'1" ws ~9' sr
Xavier Tillman
Jan 12, 1999
Junior - Michigan State
Power Forward/Center
6'8" 245 lbs
7'1" ws ~8'10" sr
Jaden McDaniels
Sep 29, 2000
Freshman - University of Washington
Forward
6'10" 200 lbs
7' ws ~8'11" sr
Jalen Smith
Mar 16, 2000
Sophomore - University of Maryland
Center
6'10" 220 lbs
7'2" ws ~9' sr
Precious Achiuwa
Sep 19, 1999
Freshman - University of Memphis
Forward/Center
6'9" 225 lbs
7'2" ws ~9' sr
Vernon Carey
Feb 15, 2001
Freshman - Duke
Center
6'10" 270 lbs
7'1" ws ~9'1" sr
Isaiah Stewart
May 22, 2001
Freshman - Washington
Center
6'9" 250 lbs
7'4" ws ~9' sr
Tier VI
Two-Way/10-day/SL/GL/Europe
Tier VI Wings
Tres Tinkle
June 2, 1996
Senior - Oregon State
Wing
6'7" 225 lbs
6'11.5" ws ~8'8" sr
Jordan Nwora
Sep 9, 1998
Junior - Louisville
Wing/Forward
6'7" 220 lbs
6'10.5" ws ~8'7" sr
Elijah Hughes
Mar 10, 1998
RS Junior - Syracuse
Wing
6'6" 215 lbs
~6'8" ws ~8'5" sr
Trevelin Queen
Feb 25, 1997
Sophomore - New Mexico St.
Guard
6'6" 190 lbs
6'10" ws ~8'8" sr
Lamine Diane
Nov 7, 1997
Sophomore - Cal. St. Northridge
Wing
6'7" 205 lbs
~7" ws ~8'9" sr
Isiaha Mike
Aug 11, 1997
RS Junior - SMU
Wing/Forward
6'8" 216 lbs
~6'11" ws ~8'10" sr
Emmitt Williams
Sep 15, 1998
Sophomore - LSU
Wing/Forward
6'6" 230 lbs
6'11" ws 8'10" sr
Lamar Stevens
Jul 9, 1997
Senior - Penn St.
Power Forward
6'8" 225 lbs
~6'9" ws ~8'7" sr
Kristian Doolittle
Oct 19, 1997
Senior - Oklahoma
Wing
6'7" 232 lbs
~6'9" ws ~8'7" sr
Tier VI Guards
Malachi Flynn
May 10, 1998
Junior - San Diego St.
Point Guard
6'1" 185 lbs
6'3" ws ~7'10.5" sr
Ty-Shon Alexander
Jul 16, 1998
Junior - Creighton
Shooting Guard
6'4" 195 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'3" sr
Mason Jones
July 21, 1998
Sophomore - Arkansas
Guard
6'5" 200 lbs
~6'6" ws ~8'3" sr
Nate Hinton
Jun 8, 1999
Sophomore - Houston
Guard
6'5" 210 lbs
6'9" ws ~8'5" sr
Sam Merrill
May 15, 1996
Senior - Utah St.
Guard
6'5" 205 lbs
~6'6" ws ~8'4" sr
Immanuel Quickley
Jun 17, 1999
Sophomore - Kentucky
Combo Guard
6'3" 188 lbs
~6'8" ws ~8'3.5" sr
Saben Lee
Jun 23, 1999
Junior - Vanderbilt
Point Guard
6'2" 183 lbs
6'8.5" ws ~8'2" sr
Myles Powell
Jul 7, 1997
Senior - Seton Hall
Combo Guard
6'2" 195 lbs
~6'7" ws ~8'3" sr
Christian Vital
Mar 21, 1997
Senior - Connecticut
Point Guard
6'2" 187 lbs
~6'4" ws ~8'1" sr
Payton Pritchard
Jan 28, 1998
Senior - Oregon
Point Guard
6'2" 202 lbs
6'4" ws ~8'0.5" sr
Markus Howard
Mar 3, 1999
Senior - Marquette
Combo Guard
5'11" 180 lbs
~6' ws ~7'10" sr
Ashton Hagans
July 8, 1999
Sophomore - Kentucky
Point Guard
6'3" 198 lbs
6'6" ws ~8'2" sr
Anthony Cowan Jr
Oct 7, 1997
Senior - Maryland
Point Guard
6'0" 180 lbs
~6'2" ws ~8'0" sr
Jordan Ford
May 26, 1998
Senior - Saint Mary's
Point Guard
6'1" 175 lbs
~6'1" ws ~7'11" sr
Jordan Roland
Jul 15, 1997
Senior - Northeastern
Combo Guard
6'1" 172 lbs
~6'3" ws ~8' sr
Markell Johnson
Aug 25, 1998
Senior - North Carolina St
Point Guard
6'1" 180 lbs
~6'2" ws ~8'0" sr
Tier VI Bigs
Paul Reed
Jun 14, 1999
Junior - DePaul
Power Forward/Center
6'9" 220 lbs
7'1" ws ~8'11" sr
Udoka Azubuike
Sep 17, 1999
Senior - Kansas
Center
6'11" 274 lbs
7'7" ws ~9'4.5" sr
Daniel Oturu
Sep 20, 1999
Sophomore - Minnesota
Center
6'10" 240 lbs
7'3" ws ~9'1" sr
Mamadi Diakite
Jan 21, 1997
Senior - Virginia
PF/Center
6'9" 230 lbs
7'3.5" ws ~9' sr
Nick Richards
Nov 29, 1997
Junior - Kentucky
Center
6'11" 247 lbs
~7'4" ws ~9'1" sr
Nathan Knight
Sep 20, 1997
Senior - William & Mary
Center
6'10" 253 lbs
~7'2" ws ~9' sr
Austin Wiley
Jan 8, 1999
Junior - Auburn
Center
6'11" 260 lbs
~7'4.5" ws ~9'2" sr
Steven Enoch
Sep 18, 1997
Senior - Louisville
Center
6'10" 260 lbs
~7'4" ws ~9' sr
Tyrique Jones
May 3, 1997
Senior - Xavier
PF/Center
6'9" 238 lbs
~6'11" ws ~8'10" sr
