Global Migration and CARTs
Guy Abel, Raya Muttarak, and Fabian Stephany
Measuring Migration - Why Does it Matter?
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Understanding the link between climate change and migration
Source: http://www.internal-displacement.org/globalreport2016/
Migration - The Big Picture
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We are interested in a world-wide comprehensive persepctive
Source: Abel, G. J., & Sander, N. (2014). Quantifying global international migration flows. Science, 343(6178), 1520-1522.
Migration - The Big Picture
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In order to get there, we need data
The Bigger the Better
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IPUMS gives us large data about internal and external migration...
- covering a time interval from 1962 to 2011,
- including 58 countries and 164 "country-years",
- with 78mn (originally >400mn) observations.
- Our features include sex, age, occupation, education, emplyoment, year of survey, and continent.
The Bigger the Better
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for us and for Classification Algortihms
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree_learning
Classification Trees
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split the parameter space in the most "efficient" way
Source: James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning (Vol. 112). New York: springer.
Classification Trees
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split the parameter space in the most "efficient" way
Source: James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning (Vol. 112). New York: springer.
Classification Trees
…
split the parameter space in the most "efficient" way
Source: James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013). An introduction to statistical learning (Vol. 112). New York: springer.
Our First Classification Tree
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classifies no (0), internal (1), and external (2) migration of 78mn observations
Taking a Closer Look
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we can see that education and age matter
Next Steps
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for which your feedback is very appreciated
- Are there more "effective" ways to perform classification (with less trade-off in sample size)?
- How can we bring climate change on a macro-level effectively into the picture?
- Could machine learning techniques help us to auto-complete our missing data?