To Estimate or not To Estimate
What's the "point?"
Why Estimate our Work?
Answer Important Business Questions
Better Understand Our Work
Build Trust
How do We Estimate?
Lines of Code
Function Points
Story Points
Ideal Time
WIP = Throughput x Lead time
<=>
Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time
#NoEstimates
Story Points
What's the "point!?"
Text
Problem: how long will it take your group to get from LA to NYC?
Analogy and
Calculation
(Uncertainty)
(Volume of Work)
(Complexity)
Basic
Math
Works
5 + 5 = 10
Ideal Time
All Things being Ideal...
Little's Law
Let me show you a Little somethin'...
...the time average number of customers in a queueing system, l, is equal to the rate at which customers arrive and enter the system, λ, × the average sojourn time of a customer, w.
l = λw
Work in Progres
Lead Time
and
Cycle Time
Throughput
Throughput = WIP x Lead time
<=>
Lead Time = WIP x Cycle Time
Decisions to Make
Individual (or group)
vs
Team Estimates
Time First Estimates
vs
Extrapolated Time Estimates
How Precise do you need to be?
or
What happens if we're wrong?
How valuable is trust between developers and the business?
and
between our org and clients?
Not perfect
Can be used against you
Very Misunderstood
Even Hated
Useless
To Estimate or not To Estimate What's the "point?"