Javier García-Bernardo
University of Amsterdam
Mnd, 2019
Spoiler: Tax avoidance
Reurink and Garcia-Bernardo (2018)
Data provider: Orbis
~300 million companies
~100 million ownership links
15 companies per capita
Garcia-Bernardo, Fichtner, Takes, Heemskerk (2017)
Garcia-Bernardo, Fichtner, Takes, Heemskerk (2017)
We hebben u gemist
Garcia-Bernardo, Janský and Tørsløv (forthcoming)
Garcia-Bernardo, Janský and Tørsløv (forthcoming)
Garcia-Bernardo, Janský and Tørsløv (forthcoming)
E.D. Wiebes, staatssecretaris van Financiën
Crash course on "tax avoidance" (base erosion / profit shifting)
Caveat: Arm-length principle: Intra-group payments need to be priced at "market prices"
However: What's the market price of a mermaid on a coffee cup?
Payments for the use of intellectual property. Source: World bank data
80
60
40
20
$Billion
1994
2000
2006
2012
2017
Intellectual property payments
The Nederlandsche Bank
Interest payments
Dividendbelasting
Blocking EU legislation
Low tax rates for interests and intellectual property
The Netherlands is extremely successful at attracting holding companies (assets ~8 times GDP).
Tax revenue collected:
- 1.5-3 billion / year
Employment:
- 3000 of business service professionals
- Some other thousands by headquarters and shared service centers
The benefits are expected to increase in the next decade
Garcia-Bernardo, Janský and Tørsløv (forthcoming)
Amount of profit shifted yearly: $600-1100 billion (Tørsløv, Wier and Zucman 2018)
Garcia-Bernardo, Janský and Tørsløv (forthcoming)
8150 companies
9.3/window
Source: Internal presentation by the director of compliance (Woods)
- Terrorist financing offences: “We have a current case where we are sitting on about 400K that is definitely tainted and it is not easy to deal with.”
- Set up a trust and accepted money on his behalf “without question.”
Garcia-Bernardo and Stausholm (forthcoming)
Data: LinkedIn ads
Garcia-Bernardo and Stausholm (forthcoming)
Garcia-Bernardo and Stausholm (forthcoming)
Cobham and Janský (2015)
- Developing countries may lose more money than it is given in aid
- Even OFCs are not rich countries
Source: World Inequality Database
Source: World Inequality Database
Wealthy people have access to better investments and lower taxation
Labor income
Capital income
Capital gains
Savings rate
Chakraborty, Venkateswaran, Pike, Huynh, Mavroeidi, Garcia-Bernardo, and Montalvo
Chakraborty, Venkateswaran, Pike, Huynh, Mavroeidi, Garcia-Bernardo, and Montalvo
Companies have large incentives and little restrictions to move profits to low-tax jurisdictions
Some countries (OFCs) have large incentives and little restrictions to give de facto advantages to multinational corporations
This is not ideal. We need to start taxing wealth.
corpnet.uva.nl
@javiergb_com
@uvaCORPNET
javiergb.com
corpnet@uva.nl
garcia@uva.nl
This presentation: slides.com/jgarciab/ias2019
https://cssamsterdam.github.io/
https://2019.ic2s2.org/warmup/
Conclusions
- Stress response in bacteria is noisy (2013)
- Noise is good (2015)
- Noise > Bimodality (2016)
Methods
- Models of gene expression
- Stochastic Simulation (Gillespie)
- Evolutionary algorithms