Joost Jorritsma,
joint with Tim Hulshof and Júlia Komjáthy
University of Technology Eindhoven
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma
Second wave can be caused by...
- Changes in human behaviour
- Seasonal effects
- Lifting of interventions
- Reinfections
Aim of the study:
Qualitative understanding of temporary immunity and permanent interventions on long-term presence of a virus
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma
Modeling Permanent Interventions
Compartmental models vs. Agent-based modeling
-
Well-mixedness vs. geometry
- Especially under travel restrictions
- Homogeneity vs. superspreaders
Social dist.
Travel restrictions
No interv.
No hubs
Modify network to model/compare interventions
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma
Susceptible
Infected
Infect neighbor w.p. \(\beta\)
w.p. \(\gamma\)
w.p. \(\eta\)
Temporary
Immune
Temporary Immunity in a spreading model
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma
Travel restrictions are very effective
- Grid-like structure prevents exponential growth, lower first and second peaks
+ The epidemic does not survive for short
immunity duration under interventions
- Surprise: Interventions can cause a high
second peak
shorter immune duration
longer immune duration
Joost Jorritsma,
joint with Tim Hulshof and Júlia Komjáthy
University of Technology Eindhoven
tiny.cc/PaperInterventions2ndPeak
tiny.cc/PaperContactTracingApps
tiny.cc/JoostJorritsma