Global catastrophic risk and ENGINEERING safety
Karim Jebari
Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm
Global catastrophe:
An event that kills millions of people across more than one continent.
Existential catastrophe:
the extinction of earth-originating intelligent species
The limits of Risk analysis:
A decision under "risk" requires a lot more information
What to do about great UNCERTAINTY?
"Mere possibility" arguments?
Welcome to the jungle.
Two symmetry tests
- Possibility equal but opposite in value
- Risks associated by non-intervention
three heuristics
1. Novelty
2. Unlimitedness
3. Complexity
What about longevity research?
Scenario 1: reduced fertility
Consequence: no additional population growth
replacement does not add value
the end of history?
Scenario 2
Lots of people=lots of value
So a "mere possibility" argument needs to defend the claim of a global catastrophe
NATURAL BOUNDARIES
such claim is defensible
Three Malthusian challenges for the world
1. Technology
2. Society
3. Policy
technology is not the problem
demographic collapse+nukes
Thank you!
Karim Jebari
jebarikarim@gmail.com
politiskfilosofi.com
twitter.com/karimjebari
Global catastrophic risk and ENGINEERING safety Karim Jebari Royal Institute of technology, Stockholm