Results

Under-performance in Biases  - 5.7%

Under-Performance in Probabilities - 2.3%

 

Regression - R=0.642

 

All significant with p<0.05

Conclusion

- Overconfidence

- Awareness has negative effect on performance

- All risk assessments impacted

-Vulnerability to major risks -> Black Swans

- Increased Fragility

CCR - Month 1

Testing Solutions to reduce impact

Debiasing

 

 

Bayesian Updating

- iBRA

- Scenario/Stress testing

- Max. Entropy prior resets

- Synchronized priors

- Single training intervention (top-down)

- Single training intervention (bottom-up)

How?

- Extrapolate thesis results

- Identify best solutions

- Apply as Beta-test

- Post-test same sample

- Compare with control group

Next - Month 2&3

- Solution link to Black-Swans

- Improve resilience

 

Research Methods for Improvement

Cont.

- Cultural resistance against implementation

- If implemented correctly no visible result

 

Research Culture Shift Solutions

And

Deliverables - 2 Consultancy Reports & perhaps implementation

Help/Support

&

20 people for pre&post-tests

2-3 hours p.p. max