Supervisor: Erika Coppola
ADRIANO.FANTINI@phd.units.it
Precipitation:
Gridded netCDF:
hydrological model
For each RP, cell:
Statistical analysis
For each RP, cell:
(multiple simulations)
Validation and change for
CA2D hydraulic model
Based on Maione et al., 2003
(over nine domains)
2
3
4
5
RISK
=
HAZARD
×
EXPOSURE
×
COPING FACTOR
Event probability, Return Period
Goods, people and services exposed
Emergency plans, adaptation strategies
What variables are we interested in?
Methods used to obtain hazard maps:
Advantages:
PRECIPITATION
DISCHARGE
FLOOD
HYDROLOGICAL MODEL
HYDRAULICAL MODEL
Flood hazard over Italy (PRESENT DAY)
ISPRA (2018), Dissesto idrogeologico in Italia: pericolosità e indicatori di rischio
Return Period:
100-200 yrs
ISPRA data obtained from the single regional agencies.
Issues:
Flood hazard over Italy (FUTURE CHANGE)
Results over Italy:
Alfieri et al. (2015); Thober et al. (2018); Donnelly et al. (2017)
Hirabayashi et al. (2013); Rojas et al. (2012);
Two main goals:
Raw station data provided by Marco Verdecchia (CETEMPS):
Gridding method based on Delaunay polygons using SciPy's interpolate.griddata
Mohr M., 2008: New Routines for Gridding of Temperature and Precipitation Observations for seNorge.no
Mohr M., 2009: Comparison of versions 1.1 and 1.0 of gridded temperature and precipitation data for Norway
Velasquez N. et al., 2011: Rainfall distribution based on a Delaunay triangulation method
Issues:
Strong points:
TIME
NUMBER OF STATIONS
Metrics:
Validation against:
GRIPHO
E-OBS
HMR (rean.)
GRIPHO
E-OBS
HMR (rean.)
Fantini A., Coppola E., Verdecchia M. and Giuliani G.:
‘GRIPHO: a gridded high-resolution hourly precipitation dataset over Italy’, in preparation
Issues:
Rauthe et al. 2013; A Central European precipitation climatology–Part I: Generation and validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS)
Isotta et al. 2013; The climate of daily precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high‐resolution grid dataset from pan‐Alpine rain‐gauge data
Perry et al., 2009; The generation of daily gridded datasets of temperature and rainfall for the UK
Hiebl et al., 2017; Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling
Before | After | Diff | |
---|---|---|---|
Total valid values | 250M | 243M | -2.6% |
Total flags | 324468 | 58008 | -82.1% |
pr > Mean + 20SD | 3240 | 2538 | -21.7% |
pr > Median + 20IQR | 49753 | 22519 | -54.7% |
pr > 100 mm/h | 221822 | 711 | -99.7% |
Other softer flags | 49646 | 32240 | -35.1% |
FILTERED
ORIGINAL
MANUALLY CLEANED
ONLY AUTO CLEANED
Some examples...
Outliers
Two RegCM 4.6.1 12km EURO-CORDEX simulations run on ICTP's Argo and CINECA's Marconi clusters:
Thanks to James Ciarlo` for running part of the HadGEM driven simulation!
Does the model perform well?
Validation for precipitation + temperature:
TAS
PR
CHyM Is a distributed (gridded) hydrological model. Peculiarities:
Three PR drivers:
Does the model perform well?
Validation only possible against a few discharge stations:
CHyM (GRIPHO)
MEAN DISCHARGE
MEAN DISCHARGE CHANGE
MEAN PRECIP CHANGE
MEAN ANNUAL MAXIMUM DISCHARGE
Qymax DISCHARGE CHANGE
R95ptot PRECIP CHANGE
Q100: 100 YEAR ESTIMATED DISCHARGE
GRIPHO
HadGEM
present
HadGEM
2020-2049
HadGEM
2070-2099
100-year discharges estimated following:
Maione et al., 2003: Regional estimation of synthetic design hydrographs
Thanks to Francesca Raffaele for the research work!
96 river network reconstruction tests for each region
(manual and automatic, with distance measures)
CHyM-OP reproduced domains:
CHyM-OP reproduced domains:
So far:
2D flood inundation model from Dottori and Todini, 2010, 2011, modified by Rita Nogherotto to run in parallel
Satellite images from COSMO-SkyMed, November 2016 event
COSMO
CA2D
Po river basin
Nogherotto R., Fantini A., Raffaele F., Coppola E. and Giorgi F.:
´An integrated hydrological and hydraulic modelling approach for the flood risk assessment over Po river basin: a case study for the ALLIANZ Insurance Company´ (in preparation)
Issues:
"Virtual stations"
New data:
Ongoing work and future improvements:
Flood hazard:
Yes, it can!
Increase in all flood proxies, sometimes > 150%
The two are often linked, but not always!
An R/Leaflet tool for flood, river, DEM, basin and station visualization
Click_edit: an R/Shiny tool for WYSISYG editing of NetCDF files
afantini@ictp.it
Precipitation:
Gridded netCDF:
hydrological model
For each RP, cell:
Statistical analysis
For each RP, cell:
(multiple simulations)
Validation and change for
CA2D hydraulic model
Based on Maione et al., 2003
(over nine domains)