1.2 Expert Systems

How rules-based systems can be used for binary classification

Human decision making

How do humans make decisions?

(c) One Fourth Labs

Dengue

Should I do a PhD

LBW

Image of

doctor

Thermometer

headache

cold cough

vomiting

Now show various combinations of input which will lead to a yes/no for a dengue and show tick/cross for these inputs

* 1) Use google image search

2) Click on Tools--> Usage rights --> label for reuse (no copyright issues)

3) Use cartoon images or very HD images

4) Use images which match the white background of the slide or have transparent background

Human decision making

How do humans make decisions?

(c) One Fourth Labs

Dengue

Should I do a PhD

LBW

Image of

doctor

headache

cold cough

vomiting

Now show various combinations of input which will lead to a yes/no for a dengue and show tick/cross for these inputs

* 1) Use google image search

2) Click on Tools--> Usage rights --> label for reuse (no copyright issues)

3) Use cartoon images or very HD images

4) Use images which match the white background of the slide or have transparent background

Human decision making

How do humans make decisions from past experiences?

(c) One Fourth Labs

Image* of Mosquito

Image of

doctor

Thermometer

headache

cold cough

vomiting

Image of Rash

You will now show the same data that you showed on the previous slide but now in a matrix format, one row at a time

inputs 

output 

Human decision making

Is this applicable in multiple domains ?

(c) One Fourth Labs

Image of Lbw

Image of

umpire

Impact

height

no ball

shot attempted

Pitching in line

You will now show some data for which the player was lbw and some data for which

inputs 

output 

Features and Rules

What is the semantics of decision making?

(c) One Fourth Labs

A human sitting inside this box with rules (if else code) in his head 

Thermometer

headache

cold cough

vomiting

Image of Rash

if (high_fever == false) and rash == false :
    return no_dengue

//show this as a function which takes x as the input
// y = f(x)
//This is a code block you can edit it by
//double clicking it
// Also change bg color etc as you want
// and highlight syntax by specifying 
// language in settings

Output

Inputs

Expert Systems

How do we outsource this to a machine?

(c) One Fourth Labs

A computer inside this box

 

Show an animation that the if-else rules get transferred from human to machine as decision.c

Thermometer

headache

cold cough

vomiting

Image of Rash

if (high_fever == false) and rash == false :
    return no_dengue

//This is a code block you can edit it by
//double clicking it
// Also change bg color etc as you want
// and highlight syntax by specifying 
// language in settings

Output

Inputs

Human here

Use-cases

Where have expert systems been used - past and recent applications

(c) One Fourth Labs

Preterm birth risk assessment*

(1994)

Space Shuttle Launch (1990)

Mortgage Loan Advisor (year)

* The titles will go away, the image should convey the title, only year will remain

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert_system#Applications for the applications listed above

- Confirm that these are indeed Expert systems and not ML based systems

Recent Application1 (preferably chat system)

Recent Application 2

Limitations

Do we need to look beyond expert systems?

(c) One Fourth Labs

Think of a decision system which involves many many parameters (say hiring someone for a job)

if (high_fever == false) and rash == false :
    return no_dengue

//This is a code block you can edit it by
//double clicking it
// Also change bg color etc as you want
// and highlight syntax by specifying 
// language in settings

One-by-one animation (this blue box is the machine)

1) There will be too many features here (show animation that instead of 5 now you have 100 features)

 

2) Lots of data to make sense from (replace the LHS by a large matrix)

 

3) show that in the human head the rules are very very complex making it hard to enumerate (very big if-else code) ... show the google example of broom v/s a dog breed which has broom like hair

 

4) now show that sometimes the human brain itself does not have rules... show example of ebola

 

5) and sometimes the rules are inexpressible (for example, I saw truth in his eyes or I did not like the way he sat down)

Human here

(c) One Fourth Labs

if (high_fever == false) and rash == false :
    return no_dengue

//This is a code block you can edit it by
//double clicking it
// Also change bg color etc as you want
// and highlight syntax by specifying 
// language in settings

Human here

On LHS show the large data matrix from the previous slide (show x and y)

 

Now put a cross on the human and the rules in his head and the explicit C program fed to the computer, delete the human and the rules in his head and make the c program empty

 

now feed this data to the machine and show that it will discover patterns from it  (show a lens revolving over the data)

 

(slowly y = f(X) should be learnt by the machine ... the code inside f(x) should just be ....)

 

( now show that inside f(x) you could have differernt functions sin(x) , sigmoid(x), some complex function similar to the one that we have in the tower-building sldies)

 

Say Hi to Machine Learning

How to move from writing rules to learning rules?

Data, Democratization, Devices

Why has Machine Learning been so successful ?

(c) One Fourth Labs

 

Democratized Algorithms

Show instagram, pinterest icon

Show facebook, twitter icons

Show social media graphs

Show youtube, vimeo icons

show facebook, amazon, myntra and othe ricons

icons of populatr blogs, news papers, techcrunch, medium, etc

 

Show GPUs, tablets, phones,  compute devices

 

Abundant data

 

Fast and cheap compute

Different roles in the ML world

How this relates to you ?

(c) One Fourth Labs

 

Show the gears and data on LHS

 

Show a pyramid: 

- On the bottom most level show all the icons from the previous slide [Collect, curate data]

- Second level show all the bolts and nuts from previous slide [ML Engineering]

-Adding new nuts and bolts [ML Research]

Takeaway

How do we contrast expert systems from machine learning?

(c) One Fourth Labs

LHS show a diagram for expert systems with rules in head transferred to code on computer [a subset of the diagram that you drew earlier]

// show a collage of applications of expert systems

 

RHS show a diagram of ML [a subset of the diagram shown on say Hi to ML]

// show a collage of applications of ML algorithms many many as compared to ES

 

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