oracle model 1

// model after calculating points for every team

//   points team a (20)                  points team b (40)
// |--------------------/----------+------------------------------|
// ^ 0                  ^ threshold (20)                          ^ total team a + team b (60)


let spread = pointsTeamB - pointsTeamA
let underdogThresholdShift = spread / 2 / 5 * flags.underdogBonus

// for underdogBonus === 2 this will get us a new threshold of 24
//
//      team a                                 team b
// |------------------------/------+------------------------------|
//                          ^ threshold (24)


// shift if maxWeight - minWeight < 2
// shift more if parameters are weighted low (small totalPoints)
let maxPoints = 25
let weightThresholdShift = (spread / 2 / maxPoints) * (maxPoints - totalPoints);


// if in ko round, shift threshold against the underdog (more pressure on higher rated team)
// the shift is 2/10 of the initial spread (thus reversing an underdog bonus of 2)

oracle model 2

1. Pick the number of goals in the game
   • by number of goals distribution from world championship '14 and euro '12
2. random value per goal, if below threshold, a scores, if above b scores
3. If ko round, calculate one more goal if draw

     team a                        team b
|------------------------/------+------------------------------|
                         ^ threshold (24)