Statistical pitfalls in news

@maartenzam

Dataharvest | EIJC

Mechelen

May 26 2018

Percentages & points

That's not normal

The mean median

Regression to the mean

Distribute distributions

Correlation is not causation

Ecological fallacy

Margins of error

Small and big chances

Percentages and points

"Last year, 30% of Data Harvest attendees were women. This year it is 40%. The share of women has increased 10%!"

That's a 10 percentage point increase

Or:

(40 - 30)/30 = 1/3 = 33.3% increase

% - % = percentage point

(new - old)/old = % change

That's not normal

Top 5 EU energy consumers

  1. Germany: 317.261

  2. France: 248.746

  3. UK: 189.439

  4. Italy: 154.748

  5. Spain: 122.176

Congratulations, you've made a population ranking

Now divide by the population, please

Especially true for maps

Make things comparable (=normalise):

per capita, per area, ...

The mean median

Bill Gates walks into a bar...

The median?

Rank the data: the median is in the middle

What does it mean when the median and the mean are (more or less) the same?

The median is less sensitive to outliers than the average. Use it!

Regression to the mean

Traffic deaths in your municipality: 8 this year, compared to only 2 last year and 1 the year before

 

Has your municipality become more dangerous? What do you think will happen next year?

Extreme values will be followed by 'normal' values

 

Things will even out over the longer term

Distribute distributions

Summary statistics rarely describe somebody's lived experience and never ring true for the whole population

Show the full distribution wherever possible, as this demonstrates the full range of circumstances experienced by different people.

Your data is so much more then the average

Show the distributions when you can

Correlation is not causation

Correlation. Is. Not. Causation.

The ecological fallacy

The average IQ in this room is higher than the average at Dataharvest.

What can we deduce from this about a randomly picked person in this room?

 

An ecological fallacy is the interpretation of statistical data where inferences about individuals are made from data about a group to which those individuals belong.

Electoral districts with a lot of elderly people tended to vote more 'Leave'. So older people voted more 'Leave'?

Don't infer things about individuals when you only have group statistics

Margins of error

In polls, changes < 3% are probably not worth your attention

Big and small chances

Eating bacon every day doubles the chance of getting bowel cancer

+ 100%!

0,0002 % chance to 0,0004 %

(+ 0,0002 percentage points)

2 x a small chance is still a small chance

But relative small chances can still be meaningful

Thanks!

slides.com/maartenzam/dh18-stats

Statistical pitfalls in the news

By maartenzam

Statistical pitfalls in the news

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