Modeling the dynamics of belief systems

Complex Systems Seminar

 1 March 2015

 

Sebastian Hörl

Why?

Ideology

How does "ideology" work?

Can one predict ideological change?

If so, can we control it?

Ideology

Established Theories

Determined by individual

  • uncertainty avoidance
  • moral foundations
  • personality psychology

 

Bottom-Up

Ideology

Established Theories

Determined by society

  • social integration
  • steered by politics
  • exerting power

 

Top-Down

Ideology

As a Complex System

Society

Individual

Changing individual

belief systems

Shaping common

beliefs systems

Ideology

As a Complex System

Concept 1

 

Cognitive Affective Mapping

Tea Party CAM

 

NGO on Climate Change

 

Water Efficiency

Technology-driven group

Government-driven group

http://uw-empathica.appspot.com/

Concept 2

 

Emotional Coherence

Belief

Emotion

Social Dynamics

Validation of own representation of the world with others.

Sticking to similar belief systems.

Creating a "shared reality".

= "hot" & "cold" communication

So does it work?

Comfort-oriented individualists

Cost-oriented pragmatics

Innovation-oriented progressives

Eco-oriented opinion leaders

Innovation Diffusion

Who will first adapt to electronic cars?

Questions?

A Complex Systems Approach to the Study of Ideology: Cognitive-Affective Structures and the Dynamics of Belief Systems  

Thomas Homer-Dixona , Jonathan Leader Maynard , Matto Mildenberger, Manjana Milkoreit, Steven J. Mock, Stephen Quilley, Tobias Schröder, Paul Thagard

Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach  

Ingo Wolf, Tobias Schroeder, Jochen Neumann, Gerhard de Haan

What’s the Mind Got To Do With It? A Cognitive Approach to Global Climate Governance

Manjana Milkoreit

Water cognition and cognitive affective mapping: identifying priority clusters within a Canadian water efficiency community

Sahra Wolfe

Complex Systems Seminar

By Sebastian Hörl

Complex Systems Seminar

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