The
Probabilistic Validation Revolution
How Kepler forced a paradigm shift
in how we treat transiting planet candidates
Timothy Morton
(University of Florida/Flatiron Institute)
@timothydmorton
TrES-1 b
Alonso+ (2004)
- H- and K-band AO imaging
- Medium-resolution spectroscopy (7 epochs)
- Multi-color transit photometry (3 facilities, 7 filters)
- Keck/HIRES RV spectroscopy (8 epochs)
Collier-Cameron, 2012
Kepler-22b (Borucki+, 2011)
- Imaging from 3
different facilities
- Keck/HIRES spectra (17 epochs)
- 17 hrs Warm Spitzer observation
BLENDER
Morton (2012), Morton+ (2016)
"I really appreciate that you put your FPP calculation software online. We tried writing our own, but it got increasingly difficult to add new features and to make the math more rigorous. It always seemed a bit silly when there are more sophisticated tools like your own out there."
p^H(pl|D) = \displaystyle \frac{\pi^H_{pl} \mathcal Z_{pl}(D)}{\displaystyle \sum_i \pi^H_{i} \mathcal Z_i(D)}
\mathcal Z_{i} = \displaystyle \int \mathcal L_i (\theta | D) \pi(\theta) d\theta
Morton & Johnson (2011)
\theta = \{\delta\}
Morton (2012)
\theta = \{\delta, T, T/\tau \}
pre-Kepler
Kepler/K2
TESS/PLATO/Gaia
Known goals; new data regime
Known data... What goals?
New innovation?
-> required new paradigm!
The Probabilistic Validation Revolution
By Tim Morton
The Probabilistic Validation Revolution
How Kepler forced a paradigm shift in how we treat transiting planet candidates.
