Ljubljana Sanctions Conference

25-26 September 2025

Dawid Walentek

UGent

dawid.walentek@ugent.be

EU public and economic sanctions

More assertive EU

• The EU set out an ambition to exercise more power in international relations
• Sanctions are at the heart of this shift
• EU sanctions are repeatedly contested in the European Council

Literature

• Focus on legal challenges, effectiveness or economic impact
• Our knowledge about the public preferences for EU sanction policy is marginal
• Fruitful research in other policy areas – for example climate, defence, immigration or unemployment
• Sanctions are highly disruptive and consequential

Research Questions

• What kind of policy EU citizens want in respect to economic sanctions?
• How do the preferences in respect to sanction policy differ across the Member States and different groups?

Experimental design

• Fully randomised conjoint design
• Questionnaire based on the European Social Survey
• Six EU Member States
• • ​Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Romania
  • 2,400 respondents
• ​Pre-registration

Simulation

• Bullet One
• Bullet Two
• Bullet Three

• Simulations help to test for power, increase transparency and simplify communication
• Simulated conjoint data matched with ESS09 data drawn at random for six countries listed for the experiment (N=400)

Pushing the envelope forward

• Identifying consensus among the EU public in respect to economic sanctions
• Advancing the theories of European integration
• Informing research on domestic drivers of foreign policy

Thank you