Varlociraptor:

Towards a unified

theory of variant calling

Johannes Köster

 

https://koesterlab.github.io

small

structural

SNVs, Indels

Inversions, Duplications, Indels, ...

?

?

?

?

somatic

germline

small

structural

germline

somatic

Delly

GATK

Freebayes

Platypus

Pindel

Mutect

Strelka

Manta

Octopus

Lancet

small

structural

germline

somatic

Delly

GATK

Freebayes

Platypus

Pindel

Mutect

Strelka

Lancet

Manta

Octopus

arbitrary

Model

\(\xi_i \sim \text{Bernoulli}(\alpha \theta_c \tau + (1-\alpha) \theta_h \tau)\)

\(\omega_i \sim Bernoulli(\pi_i)\)

\(Z_i \mid \xi_i, \omega_i=1 \sim\)

\(\beta\)

  • allele frequency
  • contamination
  • sampling bias
  • typing uncertainty
  • strand bias
  • mapping uncertainty

Model

\(\Pr(Z_i \mid \theta_c,\theta_h,\beta) =\)

⊕ Bayes' theorem

= posterior probability for events of interest (combinations of allele frequencies)

Events

Variant calling grammar

samples:
  normal:
    resolution: 5
    universe: "0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ]0.0,0.5["
  tumor:
    resolution: 100
    universe: "[0.0,1.0]"
    contamination:
      by: normal
      fraction: 0.25

events:
  germline:        "normal:0.5 | normal:1.0"
  somatic_tumor:   "normal:0.0 & tumor:]0.0,1.0]"

Application: tumor/normal

##fileformat=VCFv4.3
##fileDate=20090805
##source=myImputationProgramV3.1
##reference=file:///seq/references/1000GenomesPilot-NCBI36.fasta
##contig=<ID=20,length=62435964,assembly=B36,md5=f126cdf8a6e0c7f379d618ff66beb2da,species="Homo sapiens",taxonomy=x>
##phasing=partial
##INFO=<ID=NS,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Number of Samples With Data">
##INFO=<ID=DP,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Total Depth">
##INFO=<ID=AF,Number=A,Type=Float,Description="Allele Frequency">
##INFO=<ID=AA,Number=1,Type=String,Description="Ancestral Allele">
##INFO=<ID=DB,Number=0,Type=Flag,Description="dbSNP membership, build 129">
##INFO=<ID=H2,Number=0,Type=Flag,Description="HapMap2 membership">
##FILTER=<ID=q10,Description="Quality below 10">
##FILTER=<ID=s50,Description="Less than 50% of samples have data">
##FORMAT=<ID=GT,Number=1,Type=String,Description="Genotype">
##FORMAT=<ID=GQ,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Genotype Quality">
##FORMAT=<ID=DP,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Read Depth">
##FORMAT=<ID=HQ,Number=2,Type=Integer,Description="Haplotype Quality">
#CHROM POS      ID         REF   ALT    QUAL  FILTER   INFO                             FORMAT       NA00001  
20     14370    rs6054257  G     A      29    PASS    NS=3;DP=14;AF=0.5;DB;H2           GT:GQ:DP:HQ  0|0:48:1:51,51 
20     17330    .          T     A      3     q10     NS=3;DP=11;AF=0.017               GT:GQ:DP:HQ  0|0:49:3:58,50 
20     1110696  rs6040355  A     G,T    67    PASS    NS=2;DP=10;AF=0.333,0.667;AA=T;DB GT:GQ:DP:HQ  1|2:21:6:23,27 
20     1230237  .          T     .      47    PASS    NS=3;DP=13;AA=T                   GT:GQ:DP:HQ  0|0:54:7:56,60 
20     1234567  microsat1  GTC   G,GTCT 50    PASS    NS=3;DP=9;AA=G                    GT:GQ:DP     0/1:35:4       
##fileformat=VCFv4.3
##fileDate=20090805
##source=myImputationProgramV3.1
##reference=file:///seq/references/1000GenomesPilot-NCBI36.fasta
##contig=<ID=20,length=62435964,assembly=B36,md5=f126cdf8a6e0c7f379d618ff66beb2da,species="Homo sapiens",taxonomy=x>
##phasing=partial
##INFO=<ID=NS,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Number of Samples With Data">
##INFO=<ID=DP,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Total Depth">
##INFO=<ID=AF,Number=A,Type=Float,Description="Allele Frequency">
##INFO=<ID=AA,Number=1,Type=String,Description="Ancestral Allele">
##INFO=<ID=DB,Number=0,Type=Flag,Description="dbSNP membership, build 129">
##INFO=<ID=H2,Number=0,Type=Flag,Description="HapMap2 membership">
##FILTER=<ID=q10,Description="Quality below 10">
##FILTER=<ID=s50,Description="Less than 50% of samples have data">
##FORMAT=<ID=GT,Number=1,Type=String,Description="Genotype">
##FORMAT=<ID=GQ,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Genotype Quality">
##FORMAT=<ID=DP,Number=1,Type=Integer,Description="Read Depth">
##FORMAT=<ID=HQ,Number=2,Type=Integer,Description="Haplotype Quality">
#CHROM POS      ID         REF   ALT    QUAL  FILTER   INFO                             FORMAT       NA00002          NA00003
20     14370    rs6054257  G     A      29    PASS    NS=3;DP=14;AF=0.5;DB;H2           GT:GQ:DP:HQ  1|0:48:8:51,51   1/1:43:5:.,.
20     17330    .          T     A      3     q10     NS=3;DP=11;AF=0.017               GT:GQ:DP:HQ  0|1:3:5:65,3     0/0:41:3
20     1110696  rs6040355  A     G,T    67    PASS    NS=2;DP=10;AF=0.333,0.667;AA=T;DB GT:GQ:DP:HQ  2|1:2:0:18,2     2/2:35:4
20     1230237  .          T     .      47    PASS    NS=3;DP=13;AA=T                   GT:GQ:DP:HQ  0|0:48:4:51,51   0/0:61:2
20     1234567  microsat1  GTC   G,GTCT 50    PASS    NS=3;DP=9;AA=G                    GT:GQ:DP     0/2:17:2         1/1:40:3

⊖

Problem:

accumulation of errors

More complex: so far...

Variant calling grammar

samples:
  normal:
    resolution: 5
    universe: "0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | ]0.0,0.5["
  tumor:
    resolution: 100
    universe: "[0.0,1.0]"
    contamination:
      by: normal
      fraction: 0.25
  relapse:
    resolution: 100
    universe: "[0.0,1.0]"
    contamination:
      by: normal
      fraction: 0.53

events:
  germline:        "normal:0.5 | normal:1.0"
  somatic_normal:  "normal:]0.0,0.5["
  somatic_tumor:   "normal:0.0 & tumor:]0.0,1.0]"
  somatic_relapse: "normal:0.0 & tumor:0.0 & relapse:]0.0,1.0]"

Application: tumor/normal/relapse

samples:
  romeo:
    universe:
      all: "0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0"
      X: "0.0 | 1.0"
      Y: "0.0 | 1.0"
  juliet:
    universe:
      all: "0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0"
      Y:   "0.0"

events:
  both_het:    "juliet:0.5 & romeo:0.5"
  both_hom:    "juliet:1.0 & romeo:1.0"
  juliet_only: "(juliet:0.5 | juliet:1.0) & romeo:0.0"
  romeo_only:  "(romeo:0.5 | romeo:1.0) & juliet:0.0"

Variant calling grammar

Application: chromosome ploidy

samples:
  tumor:
    universe: "[0.0,1.0]"
    resolution: 100

events:
  ffpe_artifact: "(C>T | G>A) & tumor:]0.0,0.05["
  present: "((C>T | G>A) & tumor:]0.05,1.0]) | (!(C>T | G>A) & tumor:]0.0,1.0[)"

Variant calling grammar

Application: FFPE artifacts

Variant calling grammar

Upcoming application: pan-calling

events:
  present_in_any: "count(present) > 0"
  recurrent: "count(present) >= 2"

Variant calling grammar

Upcoming application: pan-calling

events:
  somatic: "somatic_tumor | somatic_relapse"
  recurrent: "count(somatic_tumor | somatic_relapse) >= 2"

White box model

Roadmap

  • Priors (population genetic, somatic neutral variation, Williams et al.)
  • Guanin oxidation detection (read orientation bias)
  • Long read support (extended error model)
  • Inversions, Duplications, Complex
  • Bisulfite model

https://varlociraptor.github.io

Acknowledgements

Köster lab

David Lähnemann

Jan Forster

Schönhuth lab

Louis Dijkstra (alumn.)

Tobias Marschall (alumn.)

Software

Precision/Recall

Allele frequency estimation

Allele frequency estimation

FDR control

Concordance on real data

Copy of Varlociraptor: Towards a unified theory of variant calling

By Johannes Köster

Copy of Varlociraptor: Towards a unified theory of variant calling

Talk at WGGC-Meeting

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