Duurzaamheid als (kern)waarde

Summer 2023

Forrest fires (Canada)

Summer 2023

This year’s fire season, which sparked the largest wildfire ever recorded in the EU, has been devastating for humans and the environment.

September 2023

Floods

September 2023

https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1141937

Tipping points

Teleconnections describe remote connections between components of the complex climate system and reflect the transportation of energy or materials on global scale

Tipping of the AMOC

The collapse of the AMOC is arguably the most popular candidate of a climate tipping point.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a component of the larger Atlantic circulation system, but they are not the same thing.

Tipping of the AMOC

• In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the IPCC, based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century.
  (strong consensus)
• Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
  (more speculative)

Tipping of the AMOC

Though both would be catastrophic

• A collapse would provide very little warning
• Likely lead to many consequences that we do not fully understand at this point.
   

We have a better idea of what a weakening would entail:

• Europe would cool,
• the North Atlantic storm track would strengthen – which affects the entire eastern seaboard of the U.S. as well as Europe – and
• precipitation patterns over equatorial regions would shift southward.
• These effects would directly impact agriculture, food prices, transportation, construction, disease, immigration, and political stability.
• One of the most scientifically robust results at this point is that the AMOC is strongly connected to precipitation (neerslagh) over the Sahel, a region that just experienced its seventh political coup in the past three years. I don’t think this is a coincidence—climate variability is directly linked to economic impacts and political stability.

Tipping of the AMOC

• In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the IPCC, based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century.
• Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

Tipping of the Ice sheets in antartica

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