Andreas Park PRO
Professor of Finance at UofT
Instructors: Andreas Park & Zissis Poulos
Rotman – MBA
A tumultuous 12 months
The NFT Boom
The NFT Boom & Crash
The Terra Implosion
UST Stablecoin
LUNA (cryptocurrency of the TERRA network)
A timeline
May 7: selling pressure on UST from Curve withdrawals
May 12: LUNA and UST at $0.01
June 27: Three Arrows Capital ordered to liquidate
June 12: Celsius Network suspends withdrawals
July 13: Celsius files for Chapter 11
July 6: Voyager Digital files for Chapter 11
July 4: Vault suspends withdrawals
Three Arrows Capital lost >60% of value and faces numerous margin calls that they did not react to
The Aftermath:
is crypto dead or dying?
Cryptomarket Crash
bitcoin
ETH
-70%
-60%
Consequences of the Crash?
Some Questions
Are blockchains no longer used?
transactions on Ethereum flat
Is crypto-investing dead?
crypto market follows traditional market
Is crypto trading dead?
trading volume on exchanges lower but steady
Are markets dead?
no meaningful net outflows from exchanges
Other consequences?
Challenges
Source: Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index https://cbeci.org/
Usage
Network | DApps | Dollarvolume |
---|---|---|
Ethereum | 3,500 | $40-50B |
Solana | 100 | $2.5B |
Binance Smart Chain | 250 | $3B |
Avalanche | 400 | <$.5B |
EOS | 300 | <$100M |
Algorand | 12 | <$20M |
Ethereum Challenge 1: Environment
transactions per second | T per 12 hours (business day) | |
---|---|---|
Bitcoin | 7 | 302,400 |
Ethereum | 30 | 1,296,000 |
Algorand | 2000 | 86,400,000 |
Conflux | 4000 | 172,800,000 |
Athereum | 5000 | 216,000,000 |
Payments Canada ACSS | 648 | 28,000,000 |
US retail | 7639 | 330,000,000 |
Canada number of equity trades | 46 | 2,000,000 |
Orders on Canadian equity markets | 3588 | 155,000,000 |
Tweaks: lighting network (BTC) or side chains, SegWit, blocksize possible, but there are limits
microtransactions, IoT, and other smart contract use cases place very high demands
Ethereum Challenge 2: Throughput
Ethereum Challenge 2: Throughput
Source: Etherscan w re-scaling
Ethereum Challenge 3: State Size
Source: Ycharts
Major Ethereum Tech Upgrade: The Merge
scheduled date: September 13
Hacks, Thefts, and Exploits
Common Reasons: hacks, faulty code, tricking a protocol
5-minute version:
What is a blockchain?
blockchain=
an infrastructure for digital resource transfers
5-minute version:
What is a cryptocurrency?
cryptocurrency =
internal payment mechanism to pay for operation of a blockchain
Evolution
vs
"Let me just say how impressed I am with Ethereum...If Bitcoin is email ––a one-trick pony, so to speak, but obviously revolutionary–– Ethereum goes far beyond that; it's more like the Internet...The whole idea of DeFi really is, number one, it’s obviously revolutionary, and I think at the end of the day could lead to a massive disintermediation of the financial system and the traditional players."
Heath P. Tarbert, CFTC Chairman, October 2020
5-minute version:
What is Decentralized Finance?
decentralized finance =
provision of financial services without the necessary involvement of a traditional financial intermediary based on blockchain technology
in practice: new financial infrastructure that will be a common resource
payments
stocks, bonds, and options
swaps, CDS, MBS, CDOs
insurance contracts
\(\vdots\)
Source: Harvey, Ramachandran, and Santoro (2020)
What can it for finance, what are problems and obstacles?
moving value (remittances)
digital money: real-time settlement, reduced reserves
tokenization of assets
automization of contract payments
securitization
systems and infrastructure reorganization
digital identity
new forms of financial contracts, assets, and forms of financing
Private Sector Solutions
Who gets to update?
Can a higher body prevent
transactions?
Can the past be altered?
consensus
immutability
censorship resistence
open to anyone
no one can be excluded
past cannot be changed
high visibility of transactions
open-access eco-system
slow governance
privacy only at a cost
joint control and governance
straightforward KYC and AML
tech support
transaction secrecy simpler
rely on corporate development
compliance with law (reversion)
can keep competition out
Enter BigTech
cellphone data from 2018 (NewZoo), inflation from 2020 (World Population Review)
Evolution
DIEM = "new financial infrastructure"
They have ZERO interest in becoming a financial institution/bank
\(\rightarrow\) no expertise
\(\rightarrow\) competitive market
\(\rightarrow\) one of the most regulated business environments
They are trying to deal with frictions that impede their business
They aim to collect data which will vastly improve their business
Lay the groundwork for the next step of the digital evolution: the "Metaverse"
Technology
Legal/Regulation
Economic functions
interoperability
cybersecurity and privacy
functionality
scalability
smart contract features and verification
space constraints
interoperability
scalability
space constraints:
Does the law have to change to accommodate new tech? If so, how? What's dated, what's not?
Legal setup of a platform: what rules can, should, and must a platform establish? What regulations are necessary?
How can token design and the law be married?
What is the economic impact of "tokenizing everything"?
How will it affect investments and investment banking?
Which business opportunities will it enable?
What do tokens and "alternative money" mean for payments?
Future of Crypto: Regulators
United States
Most relevant case for FIs: Tornado Cash
Need for Regulation
FinTech
DeFi
innovation vs. salesmanship
main focus
blockchain is a transformative technology, but won't be used in practice overnight
many conceptual and technological challenges remain, but there are already various areas of application
legal, regulatory, and competitive changes are needed and then the opportunities are endless ...
it will open up the banking world further, foster international competition, and change how we pay and exchange value
My view: business development will happen in private/semi-public space; strong increase in recent activity; no more testing but re-engineering of processes.
@financeUTM
andreas.park@rotman.utoronto.ca
slides.com/ap248
sites.google.com/site/parkandreas/
youtube.com/user/andreaspark2812/
By Andreas Park
This is the slide deck that I use for a quick introduction to the Decentralized Finance class.