Dr Dénes Csala

Lecturer, Lancaster University

Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania

4th June 2021

# Bayes' Theorem

P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}
P(🌧|☁)=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}
P(A|B)=\frac{0.1\cdot 0.9}{0.5}=0.18

# Bayes' Theorem

\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)+P(\neg🌧)P(☁|\neg🌧)}
P(🌧)
P(☁|🌧)
P(\neg🌧)=P(☀)
P(☁|\neg🌧)=P(☁|☀)

☀ ☁

🌧❄

= P(🌧|☁)
+
P(☁)

# K-means

P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}

What is the probability that a point k belongs to cluster C, given that C is in the location (x,y) ?

# Energy return on energy investment

Murphy et al., 2011, Energy Policy
Sgouridis, Csala, Bardi, 2016, Environmental Research Letters
Kaya, Csala, Sgouridis, 2016, Climatic Change

# Energy transitions modelling

Sgouridis, Dale, Csala, Chiesa, Bardi, 2019, Nature Energy

Lancaster University, Department of Engineering

• ENGR203 – Power Systems
Autumn 2018/19 (19 responses / 129 students, 4.37 / 5.00)
Autumn 2019/20 (20 responses / 143 students, 4.15 / 5.00)
Autumn 2020/21 (32 responses / 126 students, 4.34 / 5.00)
• ENGR371 – Renewable Energy
Spring 2020/21 (21 responses / 78 students, 3.71 / 5.00)
• ENGR429 – Advanced Power Systems Analysis
Autumn 2020/21 (2 responses / 4 students, 4.50 / 5.00)

Babes-Bolyai University

• Business Intelligence / Decision Support Systems
Autumn 2018/19 (10 responses / 43 students, 4.30 / 5.00)
Autumn 2019/20 (11 responses / 68 students, 5.00 / 5.00)
Autumn 2020/21 (14 responses / 42 students, 4.93 / 5.00)
Spring 2019/20 (26 responses / 51 students, 4.75 / 5.00)
Spring 2020/21 (7 responses / 35 students, 4.85 / 5.00)

All lectures have been recorded and available online
10+ days of content

# Data

Arecibo Interstellar Message - wikimedia.com

# Purpose of education?

Wald Ábrahám, 1944

Dr Dénes Csala

Lecturer, Lancaster University

Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania

4th June 2021

# Big Responsibility

Datasaurus, Autodesk, 2017

By Dénes Csala

Bristol Lecture

• 665