Dr Dénes Csala

 

Lecturer, Lancaster University

Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Data VIsualisation Lead, Economics Observatory

Economics is best taught visually

4th June 2021

A visual introduction to Bayes' theorem and machine learning

Bayes' Theorem

P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}
P(🌧|☁)=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}
P(A|B)=\frac{0.1\cdot 0.9}{0.5}=0.18

Bayes' Theorem

\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(☁)}=\frac{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)}{P(🌧)P(☁|🌧)+P(\neg🌧)P(☁|\neg🌧)}
P(🌧)
P(☁|🌧)
P(\neg🌧)=P(☀)
P(☁|\neg🌧)=P(☁|☀)

☀ ☁

🌧❄

= P(🌧|☁)
+
P(☁)

K-means

P(A|B)=\frac{P(A)P(B|A)}{P(B)}

What is the probability that a point k belongs to cluster C, given that C is in the location (x,y) ?

Career path

Energy return on energy investment

Murphy et al., 2011, Energy Policy
Sgouridis, Csala, Bardi, 2016, Environmental Research Letters
Kaya, Csala, Sgouridis, 2016, Climatic Change

Energy transitions modelling

Sgouridis, Dale, Csala, Chiesa, Bardi, 2019, Nature Energy

Lancaster University, Department of Engineering

  • ENGR203 – Power Systems
    Autumn 2018/19 (19 responses / 129 students, 4.37 / 5.00)
    Autumn 2019/20 (20 responses / 143 students, 4.15 / 5.00)
    Autumn 2020/21 (32 responses / 126 students, 4.34 / 5.00)
  • ENGR371 – Renewable Energy
    Spring 2020/21 (21 responses / 78 students, 3.71 / 5.00)
  • ENGR429 – Advanced Power Systems Analysis
    Autumn 2020/21 (2 responses / 4 students, 4.50 / 5.00)

Babes-Bolyai University
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

  • Business Intelligence / Decision Support Systems
    Autumn 2018/19 (10 responses / 43 students, 4.30 / 5.00)
    Autumn 2019/20 (11 responses / 68 students, 5.00 / 5.00)
    Autumn 2020/21 (14 responses / 42 students, 4.93 / 5.00)
  • Integrated Business Applications
    Spring 2019/20 (26 responses / 51 students, 4.75 / 5.00)
    Spring 2020/21 (7 responses / 35 students, 4.85 / 5.00)

 

All lectures have been recorded and available online
10+ days of content

Knowledge

Information

Data

Arecibo Interstellar Message - wikimedia.com

Purpose of education?

Wald Ábrahám, 1944

Dr Dénes Csala

 

Lecturer, Lancaster University

Visiting Assistant Professor, Babes-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Data VIsualisation Lead, Economics Observatory

4th June 2021

Thank you!

Big Data =

Big Responsibility

Datasaurus, Autodesk, 2017

Economics is best taught visually

By Dénes Csala

Economics is best taught visually

Bristol Lecture

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