Predicting and Optimizing Evacuation of a Building

The goal of this research project is to make a mathematical model for the prediction and best possible scenario of the evacuation of a building, beginning with Niles West High School.

The prediction should be as close as possible to a real world scenario, but hopefully with an applied solution through technology, real world evacuations will become more optimal.

Evacuating a building in an emergency is a critical operation, and many lives can be lost in the process.

One famous example is on 9/11: “between 8:46 AM and 9:03 AM, an estimated 1,400 people successfully evacuated the upper floors of the South Tower, while roughly 600 people did not.”

Being able to predict and optimize evacuation routes will hopefully help save lives in emergencies, or at least expedite the process of evacuation.

 

When Niles West holds a practice evacuation, students often walk at a slower pace than they would when they walk to class; this causes backups in the hallways and slows everyone down. If one person was alone in the building, they would leave a lot more quickly.

Although this speed is likely unachievable with a crowd, I hope to figure out how to help buildings evacuate with speed close to that of an individual in egress.

Concepts

  • ​Using adjacency matrices and network diagrams for egress(exiting) analysis. Variables in the emergency/in general (where the fire originated, exit location/size).
     
  • ​Optimizing the environment in an agent-based simulation ​
     

  • A* (A Star) algorithm is a popular path-finding algorithm based off getting to a given destination; decisions are made based off calculated cost. However, this cannot be directly applied because if everyone tries to go to the same exact place the same exact way, crowds and bottlenecking will occur.

Resources/Materials

 

NetLogo

 

Access to security camera/time data for Niles West evacuations

 

Access to data of other buildings' evacuations later on to confirm model and apply to other buildings

 

Possibly tracking a sample of people at the next Niles West practice evacuation (RFID tags)

 


Shen, Tzu-Sheng (2003). Building Planning Evaluations for Emergency Evacuation. WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE, Worcester, Massachusetts

Berseth, G. (2015). Environment Optimization for Crowd Evacuation. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia

Predicting and Optimizing Evacuation of a Building

By Isaac

Predicting and Optimizing Evacuation of a Building

  • 300