Perspectives on science
TAMOS, 2013
Karim Jebari
Division of Philosophy, KTH
How can science be used to device policy?
OUTLINE OF THIS LECTURE
1. Problem for science-based policy: complexity
2. Learning from medicine: experiments
3. Big data: "more is more"
4. Science and the constraints of humanity
5. Engineering safety
Society is complex
No general laws in society
Ballistics is simple.
we can't apply scientific tools
(without qualifications)
Models tend to be too simple
Society is not normal
Society is not a casino
welcome to the jungle
We ignore this complexity at our own peril
Risky MANAGEMENT:
By "managing" risk, we tend to
-
Centralize
-
Homogenize
- Eliminate redundancy
This can have catastrophic consequences
Cost benefit analysis
The illusion of objectivity
How is risk and benefit distributed?
Across space and time?
Technology drives social change
But innovation cannot be predicted.
So what do we do...?
...is it possible to avoid policy disasters?
Clinical trials
-
Do not assume a complete medical theory
- Are action-guiding
Action guiding EXPERIMENTS...
...can give us "black box" information.
In Public health...
...there is already a good track record of experiment
What about Theory?
Can provide us with useful hypotheses
How can engineers contribute?
Simulations...
...can sometimes replace experiments
Big data
...can uncover useful social correlations
For example...
... this seems to suggest that the EU is a union of cities, not nations
What about technology?
... science can inform what technology is possible and practical
THis can help policy makers avoid mistakes
Natural boundaries
Engineering safety 1: multiple barriers
ENGINEERING SAFETY 2: Safety factors
Engineering safety 3: Safe fail
THANK YOU!
Karim Jebari
jebarikarim@gmail.com
politiskfilosofi.com
twitter.com/karimjebari
Perspectives on science
By Karim Jebari
