Three main myths about football betting

When predicting the result of a particular football match, even experienced bettors tend to certain general stereotypes, which professional betters and, of course, bookmaker experts avoid. Today we will try to debunk the three most common myths about football and, accordingly, betting on this sport.

Bookmakers put quotes on any event, following two main sources: information about the likely outcome of the event (using statistics about teams and the current form of players, news about injuries of football players, coaching decisions, etc.) and about how much money betters have bet on this or that outcome. If betters, for the sake of common misconceptions, "forget" about the role of statistics and analytics, they thereby create opportunities for additional profits "beeches".

There are three such basic misconceptions, and we will tell you about each of them.

Misconception 1: The team will win because they need to win

Most betting players reason something like this: “Since team A needs a victory in this match in order to advance to the top division (the options are not to fly to the lower division, become a champion, get into European cups, etc.), and team B does not need anything, then, of course, the win against team A is practically in their pocket. " And they are deeply mistaken.

To begin with, the basis for this theory is the assumption that the team for which victory is more important will put more effort on it. But after all, if you look at this postulate from a different point of view, it can be noted that the players of team B, who do not really need anything, will play more relaxed and for their own pleasure, while their opponents, worrying about the outcome of the fight, will become nervous and make unforced mistakes (let's use tennis terminology here).

If we look at the statistics of the last ten seasons of the English Championship and Ligue 1 (respectively, the second and third divisions in the football system of foggy Albion), we will notice one curious feature: just those teams that are trying to move to the top division, in May (the last month of the season ) often perform worse than in any other month during the championship.

Knowing this, bookmakers often deliberately set low odds for these teams at the end of the season, thus pushing the players to the idea that victory in this match is a foregone conclusion. Betters fall into this trap and most often lose their hard-earned money.

Misconception 2: fatigue after UEFA competition

“This week Team A had a tough Champions League away game while Team B was quietly preparing for Saturday / Sunday at home. It is unlikely that Team A, tired of the extra game and flights, will be able to win on the weekend, "- this is how most bettors reason. However, there is no data to support this theory.

There is authoritative research by experts, establishing the following fact: over the past seven seasons of the English Premier League, teams that participated in the middle of the week in European cup tournaments, then won the next championship match in 49% of cases, while their average indicator was 48%. It is clear that the difference between the two figures is close to the statistical error, but nevertheless the data are very eloquent.



By Philipp Cox